What People Can Learn from 2024 El Nino Hedging Disaster

114 Views14 Jul 2026 22:42

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SUMMARY

If you ran price risk for anything touching cocoa in 2024, you already know the story in your body, not just your spreadsheet.
New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70% of that move through 2025.
For the desks caught on the wrong side of the timing, it was a year of margin calls, blown budgets, and uncomfortable conversations with the CFO.

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