Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

The Tabbush Report: Asian bank research and consultancy, without the noise.

Daniel Tabbush has ~30 years experience analyzing Asia-Pacific banks, including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Japanese and Australian banks. His research and consulting focuses on global banking issues, including with banks in the US. He was the Head of Asian Bank research at the number one Asian brokerage CLSA for most of his career, overseeing coverage of 80 banks and 10 analysts in Asia-Pacific.

He has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, The Asset and Bloomberg, as well as by institutional investors focused on Asia. He continues to appear in press interviews with TVB in Hong Kong, and has appeared on CNBC in the past. He maintains an information-sharing agreement with Dr. Jim Walker of Asianomics, the foremost economist in Asia-Pacific, and Tabbush was an invited speaker on Asian banks at the Independent Research Summit in Hong Kong, during years 2013 and 2014.

Daniel started his own independent bank research and consultancy in 2012, under the banner name Tabbush Report. Since 2014, he has been a member of University of California San Diego Economics Leadership Council (ELC), supporting Economic students at the University through this alumni association, and providing guidance on Economics program develoment. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from UCSD in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his family in Bangkok, and enjoys cooking, running and chess.

He is known for extolling the unusual positives of Japan’s mega banks in 2005, and the risks likely to hit HSBC from its U.S. subprime loan operations, in 2006.  More recently, when most were concerned with nearly all Western banks in late 2008, Tabbush highlighted the positive outlook for Standard Chartered Bank at that time. 

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 
 
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, S&P Global Market Intelligence. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Financials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Raids on brokers and traders.</li><li>Less economic data flow, or spurious upward revisions.</li><li>Wealth management product holders not getting paid.</li><li>Defaults on bonds or other visible credit-like instruments.</li><li>Capital flight, or just deposit outflows from banks, or from spivvy city banks to lumbering government banks.</li></ul>There is no formula for what can happen in any country and economy when confidence wanes from dramatically lower stock prices. Particularly when this is supported by a worsening real economy.None of the above is out of the question. In fact, they feel normal to those of us analyzing Asia through multiple crises over the past 20 years. And specifically, analyzing Asian banks.In this report we use the experience of past crises to highlight the key role played by Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Construction &amp; Development (CD) loans. In an economic downturn, credit quality comes to the fore.This report is part of an ongoing series of reports on the systemic risks facing China and its financial sector.We kicked off with a close look at <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fringe-banks-in-china-are-telling-us-something" target="_blank">China's fringe banks as a leading indicator</a> for things to come (the proverbial canary in the coalmine), following on with an analyse of <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/corporate-loan-seasoning-in-chinese-and-australian-banks" target="_blank">Corporate Loan Seasoning</a>, <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/beware-of-banks-off-balance-sheet-risk" target="_blank">Off Balance Sheet Risks</a> and <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hsbc-is-entrenched-in-china" target="_blank">Foreign Bank Exposure to China</a>.much more below the fold....

Raids on brokers and traders.Less economic data flow, or spurious upward revisions.Wealth management product holders not getting paid.Defaults on bonds or other visible credit-like instruments.Capital flight, or just deposit outflows from banks, or from spivvy city banks to lumbering government banks.There is no formula for what can happen in any country and economy when confidence wanes from dramatically lower stock prices. Particularly when this is supported by a worsening real economy.None of the above is out of the question. In fact, they feel normal to those of us analyzing Asia through multiple crises over the past 20 years. And specifically, analyzing Asian banks.In this report we use the experience of past crises to highlight the key role played by Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Construction &amp; Development (CD) loans. In an economic downturn, credit quality comes to the fore.This report is part of an ongoing series of reports on the systemic risks facing China and its financial sector.We kicked off with a close look at China's fringe banks as a leading indicator for things to come (the proverbial canary in the coalmine), following on with an analyse of Corporate Loan Seasoning, Off Balance Sheet Risks and Foreign Bank Exposure to China.much more below the fold.... 

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (A) (600999 CH)

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., (601601 CH)

Changjiang Securities Company (000783 CH)

China Development Bank Financial Leasing (1606 HK)

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)

Financials

What's Next For China?