Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Global NOR Flash #1 (23% share) with ASIL-D automotive certification; Cube 3DCaaS AI DRAM programme targets unoccupied price/performance tier between commodity DRAM and HBM — real optionality but pre-revenue.</li>
<li>NT$40–42bn FY2026 capex (2x step-up) guarantees deeply negative FCF; Altman Z-Score 1.4 below the 1.8 distress threshold; leverage concern is real if ASPs moderate in H2.</li>
<li>SELL, NT$185 PT (blended EV/EBITDA/P/B–ROE/DCF); upgrade to BUY if share price retracts to NT$140–150 entry — Kaohsiung ramp + Cube optionality priced for failure at that level.</li>
</ul>


Global NOR Flash #1 (23% share) with ASIL-D automotive certification; Cube 3DCaaS AI DRAM programme targets unoccupied price/performance tier between commodity DRAM and HBM — real optionality but pre-revenue.
NT$40–42bn FY2026 capex (2x step-up) guarantees deeply negative FCF; Altman Z-Score 1.4 below the 1.8 distress threshold; leverage concern is real if ASPs moderate in H2.
SELL, NT$185 PT (blended EV/EBITDA/P/B–ROE/DCF); upgrade to BUY if share price retracts to NT$140–150 entry — Kaohsiung ramp + Cube optionality priced for failure at that level.


WINBOND ELECTRONICS (2344 TW): Initiate with a SELL (TP NT$185)

Winbond Electronics

WINBOND ELECTRONICS (2344 TW): Initiate with a SELL (TP NT$185)