Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>FY2025 net income fell 49% while EBITDA fell only 9%. The gap — ~HK$2.1bn — is financing costs and derivative movements. This is a complex story. </li>
<li>The ~7.8% trailing yield is covered by operating cash flow (~26% payout) but not by net income (~131%). The payout is sustainable until the leverage is not.</li>
<li>Neutral, Fair Value HK$5.50. At 8.0x FY2027E EV/EBITDA. Wynn is fairly priced. We override the +13.8% indicative TSR arithmetic: dividend is risky, due to 5.5x net leverage.</li>
</ul>


FY2025 net income fell 49% while EBITDA fell only 9%. The gap — ~HK$2.1bn — is financing costs and derivative movements. This is a complex story. 
The ~7.8% trailing yield is covered by operating cash flow (~26% payout) but not by net income (~131%). The payout is sustainable until the leverage is not.
Neutral, Fair Value HK$5.50. At 8.0x FY2027E EV/EBITDA. Wynn is fairly priced. We override the +13.8% indicative TSR arithmetic: dividend is risky, due to 5.5x net leverage.


Wynn Macau (1128 HK): A Real Yield on a Real Balance Sheet Risk