Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Yamaha Motor – Indonesia Drives Recovery

Yamaha Motor – Comfortable Beat of Consensus on the Cards

Yamaha Motor – Lowballing Guidance on Material Costs

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Yamaha Motor reported 4QFY20 numbers with results continuing the positive 3Q momentum following the Covid 19 hit 2QFY20. The company posted revenue of ¥404bn (+5.9% QoQ, +1.7% YoY) and OP of ¥25.3bn (for an OPM of 6.3% compared to the OPM of 3.9% and 9.8% respectively in 4QFY19 and 3QFY20).This was mainly due to the growth of its Robotics business segment which reported 27% YoY revenue growth to ¥28bn and its Marine business which posted a 14% YoY increase in revenue to ¥81bn.Full year revenue and OP beat consensus by 1.5% and 10.2% respectively.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">In ¥bn</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">Revenue </td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">OPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Results - 4QFY20</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">404</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">25</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">6.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Consensus - 4QFY20</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">396</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">25</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">+2.1%</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">-0.4%</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">-0.2% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Results - FY20</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">1,471</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">82</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Guidance - FY20</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">1,470</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">80</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">+0.1%</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">+2.1%</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">+0.1% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Results - FY20</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">1,471</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">82</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Consensus - FY20</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">1,450</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">74</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">5.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">+1.5%</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">+10.2%</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">+0.4% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Guidance - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">1,700</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">110</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">6.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Consensus - FY21</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">1,635</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">115</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">7.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 26.32%;">Difference</td>
<td style="width: 26.28%;">+4.0%</td>
<td style="width: 27.02%;">-4.3%</td>
<td style="width: 20.38%;">-0.6% points</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</div>Guidance projects revenue to grow by 15.5% YoY to ¥1,700bn and OP of ¥110bn (an OPM of 6.5% compared to 5.6% in FY20). Yamaha expects the Land Mobility business to be the driver of improvement. FY21 revenue guidance is 4.0% higher than full year consensus estimates, while OP guidance is -4.3% lower than the consensus.

Yamaha Motor reported 4QFY20 numbers with results continuing the positive 3Q momentum following the Covid 19 hit 2QFY20. The company posted revenue of ¥404bn (+5.9% QoQ, +1.7% YoY) and OP of ¥25.3bn (for an OPM of 6.3% compared to the OPM of 3.9% and 9.8% respectively in 4QFY19 and 3QFY20).This was mainly due to the growth of its Robotics business segment which reported 27% YoY revenue growth to ¥28bn and its Marine business which posted a 14% YoY increase in revenue to ¥81bn.Full year revenue and OP beat consensus by 1.5% and 10.2% respectively.

In ¥bn
Revenue 
OP
OPM


Results - 4QFY20
404
25
6.3%


Consensus - 4QFY20
396
25
6.4%


Surprise
+2.1%
-0.4%
-0.2% points


 
 
 
 


Results - FY20
1,471
82
5.6%


Guidance - FY20
1,470
80
5.4%


Surprise
+0.1%
+2.1%
+0.1% points


 
 
 
 


Results - FY20
1,471
82
5.6%


Consensus - FY20
1,450
74
5.1%


Surprise
+1.5%
+10.2%
+0.4% points


 
 
 
 


Guidance - FY21
1,700
110
6.5%


Consensus - FY21
1,635
115
7.0%


Difference
+4.0%
-4.3%
-0.6% points

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQGuidance projects revenue to grow by 15.5% YoY to ¥1,700bn and OP of ¥110bn (an OPM of 6.5% compared to 5.6% in FY20). Yamaha expects the Land Mobility business to be the driver of improvement. FY21 revenue guidance is 4.0% higher than full year consensus estimates, while OP guidance is -4.3% lower than the consensus.

Yamaha Motor – Continues to Impress Despite Indonesia Weakness