Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume Firm, Price Benign | ZTO Under Pressure? (May 2025)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volume, Price Trends | ZTO Rejoins Volume Game | (March 2025)

Q424 ZTO Express Results & FY25 Guidance: Revenue Growth & Margin Better, But OpCF Shrinking; AVOID

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth</li>
<li>Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further</li>
</ul>


In Q125, ZTO's rate of volume growth accelerated, but it still lagged overall market growth
Despite a sharp (-18% Y/Y) decline in SG&amp;A expenses, OpInc margin fell by -70 bps Y/Y
Guidance suggests ZTO will chase volume share rest of FY25, pressuring margins further


Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID

ZTO Express Cayman

ZTO Express Q125 Results: Adj EBITDA Barely Moved Despite +19% Y/Y Parcel Volume Growth | AVOID