Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | October Volume Firmed | ZTO Disappoints | SF HK IPO This Week

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Chinese Express H124 Earnings | Worst of Price Competition Over | Look for Bargains | BUY SF, Yunda

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Volume Growth & Price Declines Both Moderated | (October 2024)

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Core EBITDA Margins Compare Favorably to Most Express Peers in China and US

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Dominance in Domestic Time-Definite (Air) Express Is a Durable Differentiator

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Going into FY24, ZTO aimed to focus on price,  cede volume share in support of margins</li>
<li>It hasn't worked: in Q324, adj EBITDA margin fell -290 bps Y/Y despite higher ASPs</li>
<li>Q324 results reveal weak earnngs growth, &amp; reduced FY24 volume target; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Going into FY24, ZTO aimed to focus on price,  cede volume share in support of margins
It hasn't worked: in Q324, adj EBITDA margin fell -290 bps Y/Y despite higher ASPs
Q324 results reveal weak earnngs growth, &amp; reduced FY24 volume target; AVOID


Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

ZTO Express Q324 Results: Shift in Strategy Leads to Lower Core Margins & FY24 Guidance Cut | AVOID

ZTO Express Cayman

ZTO Express Q324 Results: Shift in Strategy Leads to Lower Core Margins & FY24 Guidance Cut | AVOID