European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Zurich–Beazley: Premium Priced, But Still Underwritten

Zurich - Beazley: Board Rejects 1,280p, Raises the Valuation Bar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Agreement in principle at up to 1,335p resolves the valuation impasse, shifts the situation into execution mode, and validates the Board’s stance that price, not process, was the binding constraint.</li>
<li>At 1,254p, the 81p gross spread implies roughly 84% completion probability using an 820p break, leaving residual upside attractive for a late-stage UK cash deal with Board support in practice.</li>
<li>With Rule 2.7 expected by mid-February and completion likely in Q3, the remaining spread equates to an annualised IRR of approximately 19.5%, attractive given limited financing, regulatory and interloper risk.</li>
</ul>


Agreement in principle at up to 1,335p resolves the valuation impasse, shifts the situation into execution mode, and validates the Board’s stance that price, not process, was the binding constraint.
At 1,254p, the 81p gross spread implies roughly 84% completion probability using an 820p break, leaving residual upside attractive for a late-stage UK cash deal with Board support in practice.
With Rule 2.7 expected by mid-February and completion likely in Q3, the remaining spread equates to an annualised IRR of approximately 19.5%, attractive given limited financing, regulatory and interloper risk.


Zurich–Beazley: Terms Agreed in Principle, Valuation Risk Collapses