Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

UNIZO: Results All Over the Place, Assets Are For Sale, and TOB Kerfuffle Is Extended

UNIZO: An Amended Proposal, A New Proposal, and a Response to Elliott

Elliott Sends a 'Serious Letter' to UNIZO

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unizo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5209:1" rel="noopener">Unizo Holdings (3258 JP)</a> saga is like the Energizer Bunny.It keeps going. On. And On.Yesterday morning saw a jump in the share price after Elliott Management sent another<a href="http://elliottletters.com/assets/downloads/Letter-E-10.15.19.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">letter</a> to UNIZO (see <a href="http://elliottletters.com/unizo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://elliottletters.com/unizo</a> for more). This letter was a bit harder-hitting. It started by telling UNIZO that their <a href="https://www.unizo-hd.co.jp/en/news/file/EN_20191010_5.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">answers</a> on the 10th, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/unizo-an-amended-proposal-a-new-proposal-and-a-response-to-elliott" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:33038" rel="noopener">UNIZO: An Amended Proposal, A New Proposal, and a Response to Elliott</a> had been insufficient or had failed to answer Elliott's questions posed on the 8th (discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/elliott-sends-a-serious-letter-to-unizo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:33026" rel="noopener">Elliott Sends a 'Serious Letter' to UNIZO</a>).  The questions this time were more detailed, and the precise wording made them seem more serious than the first set. However, many are nit-picky, and designed to catch Unizo in some technical fault of governance, which Unizo has already tried to repair. And any good PR person and/or lawyer working for Unizo will tell them to go around the question again and not answer it if it can be delayed. Elliott repeated in slightly different language their question about THE PLAN (as revealed on the 2 October), which is one of the two-three Really Big Points which need to be addressed. It is Q12 in this release. However the wording of the question does not get to the end of the matter. It leaves room for another inadequate answer which must be followed up with a more detailed question. Elliott says "Please provide a simple and clear answer." Unizo can say "Discussions were held regarding such a possibility but nothing was decided." That's pretty clear and simple. But that was in the morning.After the close, the Nikkei had an article saying Blackstone was going to launch a Tender Offer, bidding ¥5,000/share.. The wording on the various media headlines all left something to be desired. The Press Release from Blackstone in English is <a href="https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000002.000049930.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. <h2>The New News</h2>Blackstone announced its intention to launch a Tender Offer to acquire all the outstanding shares of UNIZO "subject to UNIZO consent and entry into an agreement between Blackstone and UNIZO (as further described below) by October 23, 2019 setting forth in further detail certain additional terms outlined below (the “Blackstone Offer”). In the event UNIZO does not consent to our launch or enter into such agreement with Blackstone by such date, Blackstone will assess all of its available options at such time."Effectively, this deal that Blackstone is promising to launch, is, MAYBE, the same one they proposed in September, and then again in early October, and which UNIZO has rejected twice (the second time (on 10 October) saying that Blackstone withdrew one of the terms making it less acceptable. It specifically does not include a "mechanism" that UNIZO wanted. The press release does a much better PR job than Elliott's letters have done spelling out that the deal UNIZO wants is extraordinarily irregular and is unlikely to fly in any real world environment.Of course, this leads to a new dynamic, which I discuss in more detail below.As of 30 minutes ago, a headline says UNIZO claims that they haven't been contacted by Blackstone so we start with crossed wires.

The Unizo Holdings (3258 JP) saga is like the Energizer Bunny.It keeps going. On. And On.Yesterday morning saw a jump in the share price after Elliott Management sent anotherletter to UNIZO (see http://elliottletters.com/unizo for more). This letter was a bit harder-hitting. It started by telling UNIZO that their answers on the 10th, discussed in UNIZO: An Amended Proposal, A New Proposal, and a Response to Elliott had been insufficient or had failed to answer Elliott's questions posed on the 8th (discussed in Elliott Sends a 'Serious Letter' to UNIZO).  The questions this time were more detailed, and the precise wording made them seem more serious than the first set. However, many are nit-picky, and designed to catch Unizo in some technical fault of governance, which Unizo has already tried to repair. And any good PR person and/or lawyer working for Unizo will tell them to go around the question again and not answer it if it can be delayed. Elliott repeated in slightly different language their question about THE PLAN (as revealed on the 2 October), which is one of the two-three Really Big Points which need to be addressed. It is Q12 in this release. However the wording of the question does not get to the end of the matter. It leaves room for another inadequate answer which must be followed up with a more detailed question. Elliott says "Please provide a simple and clear answer." Unizo can say "Discussions were held regarding such a possibility but nothing was decided." That's pretty clear and simple. But that was in the morning.After the close, the Nikkei had an article saying Blackstone was going to launch a Tender Offer, bidding ¥5,000/share.. The wording on the various media headlines all left something to be desired. The Press Release from Blackstone in English is here. The New NewsBlackstone announced its intention to launch a Tender Offer to acquire all the outstanding shares of UNIZO "subject to UNIZO consent and entry into an agreement between Blackstone and UNIZO (as further described below) by October 23, 2019 setting forth in further detail certain additional terms outlined below (the “Blackstone Offer”). In the event UNIZO does not consent to our launch or enter into such agreement with Blackstone by such date, Blackstone will assess all of its available options at such time."Effectively, this deal that Blackstone is promising to launch, is, MAYBE, the same one they proposed in September, and then again in early October, and which UNIZO has rejected twice (the second time (on 10 October) saying that Blackstone withdrew one of the terms making it less acceptable. It specifically does not include a "mechanism" that UNIZO wanted. The press release does a much better PR job than Elliott's letters have done spelling out that the deal UNIZO wants is extraordinarily irregular and is unlikely to fly in any real world environment.Of course, this leads to a new dynamic, which I discuss in more detail below.As of 30 minutes ago, a headline says UNIZO claims that they haven't been contacted by Blackstone so we start with crossed wires.

ブラックストーン、ユニゾ買収に合意か ― まだ「決定」ではない