Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

Fed Snap (Jan 31 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

A Unique High-Frequency Indicator of Recessions

Fed Snap (Dec 13 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The initial phase of Fed easing, from pre-Volcker to post-Greenspan, can differ, particularly on the magnitude    </li>
<li>Historical Fed pivots, from hiking to easing, tend to be sensitive to the state of the economy   </li>
<li>The extent of initial Fed easing around historical downturns was at least double the size when compared to episodes with no imminent recessions  </li>
</ul>


The initial phase of Fed easing, from pre-Volcker to post-Greenspan, can differ, particularly on the magnitude    
Historical Fed pivots, from hiking to easing, tend to be sensitive to the state of the economy   
The extent of initial Fed easing around historical downturns was at least double the size when compared to episodes with no imminent recessions  


短期的なFRBの一時停止後のチャート