Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

CMOC Group (603993 CH): Brazil Gold Deal Lifts Diversification; Valuation Tied to Metals Regime

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EBITDA more than doubled (25% CAGR) over 3 years, with copper and cobalt output up ~3.5x and ~5.7x on ramp-up of TFM and KFM.</li>
<li>$4.3 bn invested in DRC; low-cost leaching drives margins; gold entry via Cangrejos adds diversification and long-term optionality.</li>
<li>Strong cash flows, growth pipeline, and ~4x EV/EBITDA valuation position CMOC for sustained upside amid rising energy transition metal demand.</li>
</ul>


EBITDA more than doubled (25% CAGR) over 3 years, with copper and cobalt output up ~3.5x and ~5.7x on ramp-up of TFM and KFM.
$4.3 bn invested in DRC; low-cost leaching drives margins; gold entry via Cangrejos adds diversification and long-term optionality.
Strong cash flows, growth pipeline, and ~4x EV/EBITDA valuation position CMOC for sustained upside amid rising energy transition metal demand.


Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK)

CMOCグループ・リミテッド（HKEX: 3993） – 高成長、低コストの生産者、再格付けの見込み