Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Days Left on Docomo Buyback; Completely the Wrong Price Vs NTT

NTT To Raise Money Through Asset Sales, Invest, and Buy Back More Stock

Japan Telecoms: Drilling Down on Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Equity Bottom-Up

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

The buyback by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> over the past year and small change has been significant.In November 2018, NTT Docomo announced a "Docomo Shock" which was that Revenues and Operating Profit would drop in the following year, and would not recover until FY2023. The stock fell sharply the next day.To mitigate some of the effect of this on shareholders, NTT Docomo announced a buyback discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-docomo-tender-offer-buyback-means-buy-ntt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25690" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Tender Offer Buyback Means Buy NTT</a> on 7 Nov 2018. NTT Docomo bought ¥600bn of its own shares at a 7% discount to the close in a Tender Offer which saw 99+% of the buyback sold by NTT. What that meant, given the ratio of shares held by NTT, was that the company would buy the next ¥300-400bn of shares directly from the market, from non-NTT investors. That meant NTT's buyback, near its end, was going to leave the flow dynamics firmly in Docomo's favor for many months. Since just before the end of the NTT on-market buyback, NTT has underperformed Docomo by 10% despite buying back a large stake from the government. On-market pressure matters. But that ends soon for Docomo. And Docomo has promised "Customer Returns" and on a price basis, NTT is at its cheapest level vs forward earnings relative to Docomo in many, many years.

The buyback by NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) over the past year and small change has been significant.In November 2018, NTT Docomo announced a "Docomo Shock" which was that Revenues and Operating Profit would drop in the following year, and would not recover until FY2023. The stock fell sharply the next day.To mitigate some of the effect of this on shareholders, NTT Docomo announced a buyback discussed in NTT Docomo Tender Offer Buyback Means Buy NTT on 7 Nov 2018. NTT Docomo bought ¥600bn of its own shares at a 7% discount to the close in a Tender Offer which saw 99+% of the buyback sold by NTT. What that meant, given the ratio of shares held by NTT, was that the company would buy the next ¥300-400bn of shares directly from the market, from non-NTT investors. That meant NTT's buyback, near its end, was going to leave the flow dynamics firmly in Docomo's favor for many months. Since just before the end of the NTT on-market buyback, NTT has underperformed Docomo by 10% despite buying back a large stake from the government. On-market pressure matters. But that ends soon for Docomo. And Docomo has promised "Customer Returns" and on a price basis, NTT is at its cheapest level vs forward earnings relative to Docomo in many, many years.

ドコモの自社株買いはほぼ完了。NTT/ドコモ株は久しぶりの低価格