Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: 1.4nm Slips from Samsung’s Grip? Why Intel May Be TSMCs Sole Next Gen Competitor

Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Has Samsung Given Up Chasing TSMC?; Xiaomi Tesla-Killer EV Using Key TSMC Chips

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Samsung Still in the Woods, SK Hynix Still Ahead. China Semi News (Huawei)

SK Hynix: Record-High Profits, the Stock Gets Cheaper.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia, AMD launch a new GPU every 2 years. At each generation, higher performance manufacturing (TSMC) and HBM (higher density, higher speed, thinner layers). Hence, cost increase at each generation. </li>
<li>Price and volumes are negotiated 1 year ahead. TSMC, SK Hynix expect AI / HBM revenues to double in 2025. Expect another 50-60% in 2026. </li>
<li>Why HBM attracts less interest than Foundry (TSMC) or Design (AMD, AVGO, Nvidia)? Mostly, investor still think this is a cyclical business – HBM isn’t.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia, AMD launch a new GPU every 2 years. At each generation, higher performance manufacturing (TSMC) and HBM (higher density, higher speed, thinner layers). Hence, cost increase at each generation. 
Price and volumes are negotiated 1 year ahead. TSMC, SK Hynix expect AI / HBM revenues to double in 2025. Expect another 50-60% in 2026. 
Why HBM attracts less interest than Foundry (TSMC) or Design (AMD, AVGO, Nvidia)? Mostly, investor still think this is a cyclical business – HBM isn’t.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

HBMはNvidiaやTSMCと同じくらい魅力的な投資であるはずだが、株価はそれを示していない