Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

JBS 3Q25: Solid Top-Line Growth as Pricing Strength Offsets Mixed Margins

JBS 4Q25: Diversification Supports Better Than Expected Results

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Key Outcome: Softer EBITDA, negative FOCF and higher leverage narrow room for error, but JBS’s scale, liquidity and diversification keep the Overweight thesis intact.</li>
<li>
Risk/Volatility: North America Beef, weak cash conversion and the June dividend are the main pressure points, making 2H26 cash recovery more important for bondholders.</li>
<li>
Valuation Driver: The long end remains the preferred expression, with the 6.500% 2052s offering the cleanest balance of carry, spread pickup and dollar price risk.</li>
</ul>



Key Outcome: Softer EBITDA, negative FOCF and higher leverage narrow room for error, but JBS’s scale, liquidity and diversification keep the Overweight thesis intact.

Risk/Volatility: North America Beef, weak cash conversion and the June dividend are the main pressure points, making 2H26 cash recovery more important for bondholders.

Valuation Driver: The long end remains the preferred expression, with the 6.500% 2052s offering the cleanest balance of carry, spread pickup and dollar price risk.


JBS 2026年第1四半期：軟調な四半期、よりシャープな債券選択