Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

NTT Q1 19 Results: Record Returns and Other Noteworthy Takeaways

NTT Corp: The Rising Dividend Story Is Playing Out.

NTT (9432 JP) Remains the Broadband King in Japan, Both for Fixed Line and Mobile

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> announced <a href="https://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/english/corporate/ir/library/presentation/index.html#190426" target="_blank">results</a> on April 26. FY18 results themselves were pretty much a sideshow. All the focus was on the future. The revenue drop and OP fall now forecast for FY2019 had been warned of last November, and then previewed earlier in April so that when the actual forecast came out, it was not a surprise, in fact one might say they managed expectations extraordinarily well. They told the story that investors and analysts had wanted to hear (because the fall was a foregone conclusion, they wanted to know it was going to be "well-managed." NTT Docomo also announced a share buyback, as expected and discussed in the insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-vs-docomo-where-to-from-here" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29324">NTT Vs Docomo: Where To From Here?</a> published three days prior - ¥300 billion to be purchased in the market over the space of a year (7 May 2019 - 30 April 2020).  Interestingly, the results appear to have led to short-covering in NTT vs Docomo, with the ratio up 2.5% or so in short order. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/623" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a>announced FY18 results and forecasts for FY19 on May 10 and that gave way to outperformance vs. the market but in zero excess volume, which was interesting. NTT also <a href="http://www.ntt.co.jp/news2019/1905e/190510a.html" target="_blank">announced</a> its own buyback program, spending up to ¥250 billion to repurchase up to 53 million of its own shares (2.76% of its shares outstanding), executing the buyback in the market and through ToSTNeT-3 between 13 May and the end of July 2019. On 13 May after the close, the company <a href="http://www.ntt.co.jp/news2019/1905e/190513b.html" target="_blank">announced</a> a ToSTNeT-3 buyback to buy back 15 million shares for up to ¥71.6bn pre-open on 14 May 2019. The results and forecasts and what they imply for NTT ex-Docomo ex-Data earnings do not suggest a trade any different than the one recommended most recently in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ntt-vs-docomo-where-to-from-here" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29324">NTT Vs Docomo: Where To From Here?</a> published just a few days before Docomo earnings. All told, I expect another ¥90-100bn of ToSTNeT-3 buybacks by NTT to be completed over the next couple of months, with the balance of ¥80-90bn executed in the market by end-July. The NTT Docomo buybacks will be conducted in the market. It is possible there would be another NTT buyback announced at the time of the Q1 or H1 earnings release.A brief discussion of the two buybacks ensues.

NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) announced results on April 26. FY18 results themselves were pretty much a sideshow. All the focus was on the future. The revenue drop and OP fall now forecast for FY2019 had been warned of last November, and then previewed earlier in April so that when the actual forecast came out, it was not a surprise, in fact one might say they managed expectations extraordinarily well. They told the story that investors and analysts had wanted to hear (because the fall was a foregone conclusion, they wanted to know it was going to be "well-managed." NTT Docomo also announced a share buyback, as expected and discussed in the insight NTT Vs Docomo: Where To From Here? published three days prior - ¥300 billion to be purchased in the market over the space of a year (7 May 2019 - 30 April 2020).  Interestingly, the results appear to have led to short-covering in NTT vs Docomo, with the ratio up 2.5% or so in short order. NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)announced FY18 results and forecasts for FY19 on May 10 and that gave way to outperformance vs. the market but in zero excess volume, which was interesting. NTT also announced its own buyback program, spending up to ¥250 billion to repurchase up to 53 million of its own shares (2.76% of its shares outstanding), executing the buyback in the market and through ToSTNeT-3 between 13 May and the end of July 2019. On 13 May after the close, the company announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback to buy back 15 million shares for up to ¥71.6bn pre-open on 14 May 2019. The results and forecasts and what they imply for NTT ex-Docomo ex-Data earnings do not suggest a trade any different than the one recommended most recently in NTT Vs Docomo: Where To From Here? published just a few days before Docomo earnings. All told, I expect another ¥90-100bn of ToSTNeT-3 buybacks by NTT to be completed over the next couple of months, with the balance of ¥80-90bn executed in the market by end-July. The NTT Docomo buybacks will be conducted in the market. It is possible there would be another NTT buyback announced at the time of the Q1 or H1 earnings release.A brief discussion of the two buybacks ensues.

NTTとドコモ、2019年度初頭に自社株買いを実施