Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

StubWorld: On Valuing Toyota Industries (6201)'s Stub Ops

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota Industries (6201) Deal Could Be Announced Near-Term

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

Toyota Industries (6201) - TMC's Sale of TI Shares Is Innocuous, TI's Valuation Remains Uncompelling

Toyota Industries (6201) - SURPRISE! It's a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

Big Aisin (7259) Offering Sets Stage for First Toyota Group Full Unwind

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.</li>
<li>As of 31 March 2025, the "Enterprise Value" of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The "Asset Ownership Business" was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).</li>
<li>If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.</li>
</ul>


Toyota Industries is a relatively complicated business. It owns lots of shares of Toyota and other companies. It has a financing business, and runs ¥500+bn of EBITDA.
As of 31 March 2025, the "Enterprise Value" of the Operating and Financing Business together was about ¥2.2trln. The "Asset Ownership Business" was at ¥2.8trln (1yr ago it was ¥4trln).
If you think buying the Operating Business at 6x EBITDA is appropriate, that means the Asset Ownership Business block buy gets done at 31-March-2025 prices. Worth thinking about.


豊田自動織機（6201） - 6兆円の入札をどう評価するかを考える