Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

(Mostly) Asia M&A: September 2019 Roundup

Gauging Foreign Investment Review Risk for Temasek Takeover of Keppel

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven




For the month of October, 17 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$34bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium



Australia


Webster Ltd (WBA AU) 
Crops/nuts
0.48
Scheme
57%


Webster: PSP Goes For the Juglans


CSG Ltd (CSV AU) 
IT solutions
0.1
Scheme
31.9%


Fuji Xerox Finds A Solution In CSG


Qms Media (QMS AU) 
Advertising
0.29
Scheme
36.3%


Quadrant Cues QMS Offer In OOH Return. 


 


Hong Kong


Avic International Holding-H (161 HK) 
Conglomerate
0.37
MbA
29.1%


AVIC Parent To AVIC (161 HK) Shareholders: Please Sell Me Your Shares at an 80% Discount!


Dah Chong Hong (1828 HK) 
Dealership
0.39
Scheme
37.55%



BMW-Distributor Dah Chong To Be Privatised? The Price Is Right For Dah Chong. 



 


India


Adani Gas Ltd (ADGAS IN) 
Gas utility
8.6
Open Offer
8.7%


TOTAL to Take a Stake in Adani Gas


 


Japan


Sotsu Co Ltd (3711 JP) 
Anime
0.32
Tender Offer
66%


Bandai Namco Gets That Last Bit of Gundam: Tender Offer for Sotsu (3711 JP) 


Keihin Corp (7251 JP) 
Auto parts
1.0
Tender Offer
37%



Honda TOB for Keihin (7251) - A Cheapish Buy For Honda But It Gets Up 



Nissin Kogyo (7230 JP) 
Auto parts
0.9
Tender Offer
25%



Honda TOB for Nissin Kogyo (7230) - Honda Gets This Done Easily 



Showa Corp (7274 JP) 
Auto parts
1.1
Tender Offer
27.3%


Honda TOB for Showa (7274) - THIS One Is Too Cheap


 


Singapore


Keppel Corp Ltd (KEP SP) 
Conglomerate
2.9
Partial
26%


BIG Temasek Partial Offer for Keppel


United Engineers (UEM SP) 
Property
0.8
MGO
-4.1%


United Engineers: Yanlord Takes a Bigger Slice, But Nothing Changes


 


UK &amp; Europe 


Sophos (SOPH LN) 
Security
3.8
Scheme
37%


Thoma Bravo Scoops Up Sophos


Just Eat PLC (JE/ LN) 
Food delivery
6.3
Takeover Offer
20%


New Prosus Offer Won't Take Away Just Eat Just Eat (JE/ LN): Who Else Can Enter the Bidding War?


Scottish Salmon Co Plc (SSC NO) 
Fisheries
0.19
MTO
-0.4%


Bakkafrost Catches The Scottish Salmon Company


 



Canada



AltaGas Canada Inc (ACI CN) 
Gas distributor
0.8
PoA
31.4%


AltaGas Canada Privatization Offer


Stars Group Inc (TSGI CN) 
Betting
6.2
PoA
38.7%


Flutter Makes a Bet on Stars




MbA - Merger by absorption, PoA = Plan of Arrangement, MTO = Mandatory Tender Offer Source: Smartkarma Insights



While Scottish Salmon's Offer comes at a slight discount of 0.4% to the pre-announcement closing price, the offer price translates to premia of 22.0% and 43.9% to the 6-month and 1-year VWAPs respectively. 
United Engineers (UEM SP)'s takeunder was triggered by a restructuring of the major shareholder. Ideally, this was not an Offer Yanlord Land (YLLG SP) had any intention of launching. This is not dissimilar to the restructuring of government-related entities which triggered a conditional MGO in Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK). Those entities tried to avoid an Offer but were obligated to adhere to takeover rules. That Offer is now conditional and remains open for acceptances.


The average premium for the new deals announced in October was 30%, while the average for the first ten months of 2019 is ~32%.



Brief Summary of News in October of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in June, I've included a link to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links &amp; insights)




Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU) 

4-Oct. The Scheme Meeting is to be held on the 7 November.  31-Oct: Charter Hall has sold its entire 19.9% stake. Presumably divested to HFs so they vote in favour of the Scheme. A bit dubious, but something like this happened in Vocus.




Aveo Group (AOG AU) 
25-Oct: Mulpha International (MIT MK) to vote in favour of Scheme. The Meeting is expected to be held on the 6 November. Aveo's Offer One Step Closer To Getting Done




Bellamy's Australia (BAL AU) 
31-Oct: The Scheme Booklet has been registered with ASIC. The Scheme Meeting is to be held on the 5 Dec with an expected implementation date of 23 Dec. 



Echo Resources (EAR AU) 

18-Oct: Northern Star Resources (NST AU) has declared it Offer last and final. 29-Oct: NST held 94.27% of shares out.




Erm Power Ltd (EPW AU) 

On 2 Oct, Perpetual increased its stake in from 7.67% to 8.85%.  Looks like they paid up to at least $2.435 in one of those tranches. Perpetual Angles For A Bump In ERM Power




Gbst Holdings (GBT AU) 

14-Oct: Shareholders voted in favour of the Scheme.




Macquarie Media (MRN AU) 

15-Oct: The Offer closed with Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) holding 98.64%. NEC will now move to compulsory acquire all remaining shares in MRN. MRN was suspended five days later.




Mod Resources (MOD AU) 
1-Oct: Shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme with Sandfire. The implementation date was the 23rd October.



Pacific Energy (PEA AU) 

2-Oct: PEA announced QIC's Scheme Booklet has been registered with ASIC. The Scheme Meeting is to be held on the 8 November.




Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) 
9-Oct: The process deed between Winfield Energy and Stanmore was extended to the 28 October from the 7 October. 17-Oct: The process deed with Winfield Energy was terminated. 


Villa World Ltd (VLW AU)
2-Oct: AVID Property has received a "no objection" letter from FIRB in its tilt for VLW by way of a Scheme. 11-Oct: VLW shareholders overwhelmingly approved the Scheme. The implementation date is the 30 October.










China


Comments




Shenzhen Kondarl Group (000048 CH) 
No Oct update.










Hong Kong


Comments (with links &amp; insights)



Dalian Port (Pda) Co Ltd (2880 HK)

2-Oct: The SFC announced that the Offeror cannot deduct the final dividend from the Offer price for Dalian Port. Therefore, the MGO price will remain at $1.0127/share.  5-Oct: Composite Document dispatched. Dalian Ports' Unconditional MGO
21-Oct: 6.28% had tendered. Dalian Port And "Truth In Statements" 28-Oct: Results of the Offer - 856,346,695 H Shares, representing approximately 6.64% of the total issued share out of the company and approximately 16.60% of the H shares. 16.8% of H shares are in public hands; but 24.99% of total issued shares (A + H) remain in public hands. 




Huaneng Renewables Corp H (958 HK) 

3-Oct: Merger by absorption announced. Another Clean Energy Takeout: Huaneng Renewables Delisting Offer 24-Oct: HRC has delayed the despatch of the composite document to 31 October - on or before.




Leyou Technologies (1089 HK) 

No Oct update.




Maanshan Iron &amp; Steel H (323 HK) 

30-Sep: Scheme Doc issued. The Magang/Angang Pair Trade Is Preferable To The MGO 24-Oct: 16.1% have tendered according to CCASS.  Maanshan's Offer Likely To Turn Unconditional 25-Oct: 21.72% tendered according to CCASS. 28-Oct: Offer declared unconditional. Offer extended to the 11 Nov. Maanshan’s Offer Turns Unconditional




TPV Technology (903 HK) 

8-Oct: Scheme doc is out. Scheme Doc Issued For TPV Tech 30-Oct: Shareholders overwhelmingly voted For the Scheme. The For vote was 99.81%. For the majority in number clause, 25 CCASS [particpant s voted For, 3 against.  Drilling down into CDP, which was counted as one vote, 10 votes cast on behalf of CDP voted for the Scheme, one against. 
Last day of trading is the 4 November. Cheques dispatched on the 21 Nov.




Yixin Group Ltd (2858 HK) 

No Oct update.











Japan


Comments (with insights)




Asunaro Aoki Construction (1865 JP) 

No Oct update.




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 

No Oct update.




Polatechno (4239 JP) 

No Oct update.




Sanyo Chemical Ind (4471 JP) /  Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP) 

No Oct update.




Unizo Holdings (3258 JP) 

2-Oct: Fortress Group released an amendment to their Tender Offer filing. UNIZO: Fortress Clarity Is Not Certainty 9-Oct: Elliott Management sent an "open letter" to UNIZO management. Elliott Sends a 'Serious Letter' to UNIZO 9-Oct Unizo releases a raft of documents UNIZO: An Amended Proposal, A New Proposal, and a Response to Elliott 15-Oct: Blackstone announced its intention to launch a Tender Offer to acquire all the outstanding shares. Blackstone To Bid for UNIZO - Still Not A "Done Deal"











Philippines


Comments (with links &amp; insights)




Holcim Philippines (HLCM PM) 

No Oct update.











Singapore


Comments (with links)




Ascendas Hospitality (ASCHT SP) 
21-Oct: The Scheme Meeting, approving the deal. The timeline is now ticking to completion. 



Health Management Intl (HMI SP) 

3-Oct: Scheme Doc dispatched. 18-Oct Shareholders approved the Scheme










Thailand


Comments (with links &amp; insights)



Glow Energy Pcl (GLOW TB)
22-Oct: Glow announced a slight revision to the IFA’s opinion letter for the Delisting Offer. It is record-keeping. There is no change to the fair value assessment or other major terms.


Golden Land Prop Dvlp (GOLD TB)

22-Oct: EGM notice. Meeting to be held on the 20 November. 22-Oct: IFA opinion."Based on different appropriate valuation approaches we employed, the Independent Financial Advisor deems that fair value of GOLD’s ordinary shares falls in the range between THB 7.61 and 9.57."




SVI Pcl (SVI TB) 

17-Oct: The IFA considers the Offer for SVI to be fair &amp; reasonable. The Offer period closes on the 1 November with an expected settlement on the 5 November. 28-Oct: In the Report on the Preliminary Result of the Tender Offer, 160.3mn shares or 7.45% of shares out had tendered into the Offer. SVI's Offer Looks Set To Fail. And Fall



Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB)

No Oct update.










UK


Comments (with links)



EI Group (EIG LN)
No Oct update.



Entertainment One (ETO LN) 
No Oct update.



Greene King PLC (GNK LN) 
9-Oct: Greene King shareholders overwhelmingly voted for CK Asset Holdings (1113 HK)'s Offer: 





London Stock Exchange (LSE LN) 
8-Oct: The HKEX (388 HK) has announced it is walking away from its Offer for LSE.









Europe


Comments (with links &amp; insights)




Altran Technologies Sa (ALT FP) 

15-Oct: Tender Offer docs issued. 16-Oct: Tender Offer is open.




OSRAM Licht AG (OSR GR) 

1-Oct: ams gets to 19.99%. Min acceptance not achieved. Ams Offer Does Not Win Osram. Back To Square 2 18-Oct: New ams deal for Osram.
New ams Deal for Osram In Store - It's Doable











(대부분) 아시아 M&amp;A: 2019년 10월 요약

Keppel Corp

(대부분) 아시아 M&amp;A: 2019년 10월 요약

(대부분) 아시아 M&A: 2019년 10월 요약