External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Amidst elevated oil prices and prevailing uncertainty of regional turmoil, we have tried to produce a probable inflation pathway for Pakistan if oil prices remains at US$100 and above, along with their implication on monetary policy stance. Taking cue from historical data, we have assessed the sensitivity of headline inflation to potential changes in fuel prices, transport service charges, LPG prices, gas prices, electricity tariffs and food prices.</li><li>Based on our calculation, a US$100/barrel Brent oil price will take the inflation to average at 10.92%, 9.33%, 7.47% and 8.22% in next 4 quarters i.e. 4QFY26, 1QFY27, 2QFY27, and 3QFY27, respectively. Refer below table for further clarity.</li><li>Considering inflation impact and risk to external accounts, we believe a hike in interest rate would be required with sustained oil prices of US$120/barrel and above. At the level of US$120 and above, real rates start getting compromised (see grey marked in below table) and shall be avoided, in our view. The term sustained oil price here emphasizes the assumption of continuation of higher levels of oil prices.</li></ul>

Amidst elevated oil prices and prevailing uncertainty of regional turmoil, we have tried to produce a probable inflation pathway for Pakistan if oil prices remains at US$100 and above, along with their implication on monetary policy stance. Taking cue from historical data, we have assessed the sensitivity of headline inflation to potential changes in fuel prices, transport service charges, LPG prices, gas prices, electricity tariffs and food prices.Based on our calculation, a US$100/barrel Brent oil price will take the inflation to average at 10.92%, 9.33%, 7.47% and 8.22% in next 4 quarters i.e. 4QFY26, 1QFY27, 2QFY27, and 3QFY27, respectively. Refer below table for further clarity.Considering inflation impact and risk to external accounts, we believe a hike in interest rate would be required with sustained oil prices of US$120/barrel and above. At the level of US$120 and above, real rates start getting compromised (see grey marked in below table) and shall be avoided, in our view. The term sustained oil price here emphasizes the assumption of continuation of higher levels of oil prices.

파키스탄 경제 - 유가가 배럴당 100달러 이상을 유지할 경우 인플레이션 경로; 2026년 3월 인플레이션은 7.0~7.5%로 예상되며, 2026년 4월에는 두 자릿수에 도달할 수 있음