External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Pakistan Materials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect Topline Fertilizer universe earnings to increase by 23% YoY and down by 28% QoQ in 1Q2026. The surge on YoY basis is mainly due to the dividend income received from FFC’s energy business. However, during 1Q2026, the urea offtakes decreased by 6% YoY and 59% QoQ primarily due to an advance buying in Dec 2025, wherein, record-high discounts were offered.</li><li>Average urea prices during 1Q2026 increased by 1% YoY and down 3% QoQ to clock in at Rs4,407/bag. EFERT has maintained a discount range of Rs150/bag during 1Q2026, which has now been rolled back with effective from April 04th 2026. Similarly, FFC withdrew the discounts from Jan 2026, which were previously in the range of Rs100–120/bag. However, DAP prices have increased by 18% YoY and down 2% QoQ to average at around Rs14,270/bag, respectively.</li><li>The sector’s turnover is expected to increase by 44% YoY and down by 48% QoQ to Rs135mn in 1Q2026. The YoY improvement in revenue is attributed to the rollback of discounts. However, urea offtakes witnessed a 6% YoY and 59% QoQ decline in 1Q2026 to 1.04mn tons. Whereas, DAP offtakes surged by 102% YoY and down 44% QoQ to 304k tons in 1Q2026.</li></ul>

We expect Topline Fertilizer universe earnings to increase by 23% YoY and down by 28% QoQ in 1Q2026. The surge on YoY basis is mainly due to the dividend income received from FFC’s energy business. However, during 1Q2026, the urea offtakes decreased by 6% YoY and 59% QoQ primarily due to an advance buying in Dec 2025, wherein, record-high discounts were offered.Average urea prices during 1Q2026 increased by 1% YoY and down 3% QoQ to clock in at Rs4,407/bag. EFERT has maintained a discount range of Rs150/bag during 1Q2026, which has now been rolled back with effective from April 04th 2026. Similarly, FFC withdrew the discounts from Jan 2026, which were previously in the range of Rs100–120/bag. However, DAP prices have increased by 18% YoY and down 2% QoQ to average at around Rs14,270/bag, respectively.The sector’s turnover is expected to increase by 44% YoY and down by 48% QoQ to Rs135mn in 1Q2026. The YoY improvement in revenue is attributed to the rollback of discounts. However, urea offtakes witnessed a 6% YoY and 59% QoQ decline in 1Q2026 to 1.04mn tons. Whereas, DAP offtakes surged by 102% YoY and down 44% QoQ to 304k tons in 1Q2026.

파키스탄 비료: 2026년 1분기 비료 사업 이익, 전년 동기 대비 23% 증가 예상; 배당금 증가 및 할인 축소