External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We have reviewed our economic indicators forecast and top picks in market considering recent oil prices movement. We believe the situation has already prolonged, albeit still evolving until the war is over or peaceful resolution is reached. Our analysis tries to answer, “How economic indicators will look like in FY26 and FY27 if this situation continues? And what should be top picks in market and index target?”</li><li>Pakistan Economy: Inflation: Assuming if situation prevails for longer period, the Pakistan inflation in next 12 months will average 9-10% with 4QFY26 average above 11%. These assumptions are based on US$100 oil price; however, every US$10/barrel increase has impact of 50bps on our inflation projections. That said, with US$120/barrel oil the average inflation in 12 months could reach 10-11%, thus warranting another hike to protect real rates, in our view.</li><li>GDP growth: Besides this, higher energy prices and inflation will also weigh on economic growth. That said, our GDP forecast for FY27 comes down to 2.5-3.0% from earlier growth of 4.0%, impacting growth projections by 100-120bps. While for FY26 we maintain our forecast at 3.5-4.0%, in line with revised guidelines of the Central Bank.</li></ul>

We have reviewed our economic indicators forecast and top picks in market considering recent oil prices movement. We believe the situation has already prolonged, albeit still evolving until the war is over or peaceful resolution is reached. Our analysis tries to answer, “How economic indicators will look like in FY26 and FY27 if this situation continues? And what should be top picks in market and index target?”Pakistan Economy: Inflation: Assuming if situation prevails for longer period, the Pakistan inflation in next 12 months will average 9-10% with 4QFY26 average above 11%. These assumptions are based on US$100 oil price; however, every US$10/barrel increase has impact of 50bps on our inflation projections. That said, with US$120/barrel oil the average inflation in 12 months could reach 10-11%, thus warranting another hike to protect real rates, in our view.GDP growth: Besides this, higher energy prices and inflation will also weigh on economic growth. That said, our GDP forecast for FY27 comes down to 2.5-3.0% from earlier growth of 4.0%, impacting growth projections by 100-120bps. While for FY26 we maintain our forecast at 3.5-4.0%, in line with revised guidelines of the Central Bank.

파키스탄 전략: 지역 분쟁 속 급등하는 유가, 파키스탄 경제 및 시장에 미치는 영향