Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 35 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist and Asia sector strategist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

With the base effects from GST implementation (in April 2015) fading, private consumption and real GDP growth should have regained momentum in 2Q 2016 -- but didn't. CPI inflation did duly ease to just 1.6% YoY in June, allowing BNM to cut the policy rate by 25bp this month. We expect another 25bp rate cut by October, but fiscal spending will need to be reined in, after the deficit soared to 6.1% of GDP in 1Q 2016. Real GDP growth is likely to remain below 5% in 2016 despite easier monetary policy. Industrial growth eased in April-May 2016 (despite stronger export-oriented E&amp;E output), although improved imports suggest better services sector growth. The Malaysian economy showed very modest signs of life in 2Q 2016, with consumer sentiment likely succumbing to the renewed political uncertainty as the vise closed around 1MDB. Malaysia's current account surplus shrank to 1.7% of GDP 1Q 2016, but both FDI and portfolio inflows soared in late-2015 and 1Q 2016, as Chinese companies bought 1MDB assets (Edra Global and the Bandar Malaysia land on which the Tun Razak Exchange is supposed to be built).   Najib's widening problems with 1MDB have effectively squandered the great strategic opportunity that Malaysia had in 2H 2015, with both the US and China aggressively wooing the country. The US took Malaysia off the Human Trafficking blacklist in July 2015 (while keeping Thailand on it) in order to enable Malaysia to sign up to the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) trade agreement. And in late-2015 and 1Q 2016, FDI and portfolio inflows from China soared -- particularly to acquire assets from 1MDB at very generous valuations. However, as the Swiss, Singaporean and US justice systems close around 1MDB, Najib and his BN coalition are also likely to face a stronger challenge from an energized opposition (now reinforced by a new party that includes Mahathir, former DPM Muhyiddin and Sabah strongman Shafie Apdal). FDI inflows that had responded positively to Malaysia's TPP membership are likely to weaken as political uncertainty rise. We recommend staying Underweight Malaysia.

With the base effects from GST implementation (in April 2015) fading, private consumption and real GDP growth should have regained momentum in 2Q 2016 -- but didn't. CPI inflation did duly ease to just 1.6% YoY in June, allowing BNM to cut the policy rate by 25bp this month. We expect another 25bp rate cut by October, but fiscal spending will need to be reined in, after the deficit soared to 6.1% of GDP in 1Q 2016. Real GDP growth is likely to remain below 5% in 2016 despite easier monetary policy. Industrial growth eased in April-May 2016 (despite stronger export-oriented E&amp;E output), although improved imports suggest better services sector growth. The Malaysian economy showed very modest signs of life in 2Q 2016, with consumer sentiment likely succumbing to the renewed political uncertainty as the vise closed around 1MDB. Malaysia's current account surplus shrank to 1.7% of GDP 1Q 2016, but both FDI and portfolio inflows soared in late-2015 and 1Q 2016, as Chinese companies bought 1MDB assets (Edra Global and the Bandar Malaysia land on which the Tun Razak Exchange is supposed to be built).   Najib's widening problems with 1MDB have effectively squandered the great strategic opportunity that Malaysia had in 2H 2015, with both the US and China aggressively wooing the country. The US took Malaysia off the Human Trafficking blacklist in July 2015 (while keeping Thailand on it) in order to enable Malaysia to sign up to the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) trade agreement. And in late-2015 and 1Q 2016, FDI and portfolio inflows from China soared -- particularly to acquire assets from 1MDB at very generous valuations. However, as the Swiss, Singaporean and US justice systems close around 1MDB, Najib and his BN coalition are also likely to face a stronger challenge from an energized opposition (now reinforced by a new party that includes Mahathir, former DPM Muhyiddin and Sabah strongman Shafie Apdal). FDI inflows that had responded positively to Malaysia's TPP membership are likely to weaken as political uncertainty rise. We recommend staying Underweight Malaysia. 

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