Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Tokai Carbon (5301.T) – Portfolio Shift Underway; Margin Recovery Key to Re-Rating

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tokai has sold its lossmaking German electrode unit, cut global electrode capacity by 25%, and acquired Bridgestone’s 180ktpa Thai carbon black plant — actions that remove EBIT drag </li>
<li>These moves could lift FY27 EPS from ~¥92 (base case) to ¥125–130 (+35–40%), with margins rising toward 9–10% versus 5.5% in FY24. Q1 FY25 already (OPM 8.9%).</li>
<li>Shares remain flat at ~¥1,000 (0.8× P/B, 19.6× FY25E P/E falling to 8.8× FY28E), leaving room for re-rating if Tokai delivers sustained &gt;8% margins over the next 2–3 quarters.</li>
</ul>


Tokai has sold its lossmaking German electrode unit, cut global electrode capacity by 25%, and acquired Bridgestone’s 180ktpa Thai carbon black plant — actions that remove EBIT drag 
These moves could lift FY27 EPS from ~¥92 (base case) to ¥125–130 (+35–40%), with margins rising toward 9–10% versus 5.5% in FY24. Q1 FY25 already (OPM 8.9%).
Shares remain flat at ~¥1,000 (0.8× P/B, 19.6× FY25E P/E falling to 8.8× FY28E), leaving room for re-rating if Tokai delivers sustained &gt;8% margins over the next 2–3 quarters.


Tokai Carbon(5301 JP) - 마진 확대 전망, 가치 평가는 아직 반영되지 않음