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αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd">Tokai Carbon</a> is a global leader in carbon-based products, with a diversified portfolio serving cyclical end-markets such as steel (graphite electrodes) and automotive (carbon black), alongside growth sectors like semiconductors and electric vehicles (fine carbon, anode materials).</li>
  <li>The company is undergoing a strategic transformation focused on improving profitability in its core, capital-intensive businesses through structural reforms, while allocating resources to high-growth areas like fine carbon for semiconductors and anode materials for EV batteries.</li>
  <li>After a significant net loss in FY2024 due to market slumps and impairment charges, financial performance is showing signs of recovery in FY2025 and FY2026, supported by a rebound in key markets and a commitment to stable shareholder returns through consistent dividends.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
Tokai Carbon is a global leader in carbon-based products, with a diversified portfolio serving cyclical end-markets such as steel (graphite electrodes) and automotive (carbon black), alongside growth sectors like semiconductors and electric vehicles (fine carbon, anode materials).
  The company is undergoing a strategic transformation focused on improving profitability in its core, capital-intensive businesses through structural reforms, while allocating resources to high-growth areas like fine carbon for semiconductors and anode materials for EV batteries.
  After a significant net loss in FY2024 due to market slumps and impairment charges, financial performance is showing signs of recovery in FY2025 and FY2026, supported by a rebound in key markets and a commitment to stable shareholder returns through consistent dividends.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) - Aug 2026

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX Caps another winning week - now 4/5 for the year;  Blow out Jobs report but Wages slowing - Goldilocks ? Powell speaks this week as DIS, UBER report.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor;  Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel rates;  Earnings this week - Watch Softbank</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. NO ROCKING OF THE BOAT - BOJ Deputy Amamiya is set to take the mantle of leadership at the BOJ.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX Caps another winning week - now 4/5 for the year;  Blow out Jobs report but Wages slowing - Goldilocks ? Powell speaks this week as DIS, UBER report.
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor;  Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel rates;  Earnings this week - Watch Softbank
DAILY NUGGETS. NO ROCKING OF THE BOAT - BOJ Deputy Amamiya is set to take the mantle of leadership at the BOJ.


Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ's Amamiya "THE ONE" ?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.</p>

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/689/original/2020-08-20_08-32-43.png?1597879991" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153689"></figure><div class="content-caption">All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.</div><p><strong>BRUTAL</strong> - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/694/original/2020-08-20_09-02-34.png?1597881766" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153694"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/695/original/2020-08-20_09-03-07.png?1597881801" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153695"></figure><p><strong>TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS</strong> - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/727/original/2020-08-20_10-57-21.png?1597888653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153727"></figure><p><strong>DAMN THE TORPEDOES</strong> - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.</p></div>

All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.DAMN THE TORPEDOES - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 4th AUGUST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nok-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2980:1" rel="noopener">NOK Corp (7240 JP)</a>, respectively - both mostly driven by forecasts.  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/543/original/2020-08-05_06-36-25.png?1596577023" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150543"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/530/original/2020-08-05_05-52-12.png?1596574370" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150530"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<hr>
</div><div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> - 74% of quarterly results,  80% of annual forecasts/revisions and 73% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 33% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>127 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 24% Positive / 2% Neutral / 74% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>-4.5 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue: </strong>-13.4% Quarter YoY / -3.9% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.8 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>59 Annual • 33 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 17% Positive / 3% Neutral / 80% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 24% Positive / 3% Neutral / 73% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.7 points</li>
</ul></div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 4th AUGUST •
The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) and NOK Corp (7240 JP), respectively - both mostly driven by forecasts.  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.
Source • Japan Analytics


DAILY STATS

PERCENTAGES - 74% of quarterly results,  80% of annual forecasts/revisions and 73% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 33% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.127 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 24% Positive / 2% Neutral / 74% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.5 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.4% Quarter YoY / -3.9% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
 59 Annual • 33 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 17% Positive / 3% Neutral / 80% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 24% Positive / 3% Neutral / 73% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 4th August - Sony, CTC, Kakaku.com, Daikin, Yamaha, Tokai Carbon

Japan

TOKAI CARBON CO., LTD. produces carbon-based industrial products such as carbon black for various rubber products.  The Company also manufactures high-pressured gases and industrial electric furnaces.

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Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)

Primer: Tokai Carbon (5301 JP) - Aug 2026

Tokai Carbon is a global leader in carbon-based products, with a diversified portfolio serving cyclical end-markets such as steel (graphite...

αSK Primers

Good Morning Japan |4 /5 as SPX Weekly Wins Continue;Blow Out NFP Report ! BoJ's Amamiya "THE ONE" ?

NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; Yen weakens to 132 handle as Amimiya forerunner for BOJ Governor; Inbound resurgence reflecting in skyrocketing hotel...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Major global indexes continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 4th August - Sony, CTC, Kakaku.com, Daikin, Yamaha, Tokai Carbon

•BEST & WORST 4th AUGUST • The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP) and NOK...

Campbell Gunn

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