Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The UK labour market ended 2025 on a disappointingly feeble note, with unemployment rising to 5.2%. Methodology and tax contributed, so the cyclical change isn’t so bad.</li><li>Wage growth also slowed in 2025, with disagreement about the extent. Most measures remain above 4%, although the distorted public vs private split depressed the latter.</li><li>Dovish BoE assumptions can lean on labour market weakness to cut again soon. We still lean towards the 30 April MPR, but soft CPI inflation could push Bailey to 19 March.</li></ul><p></p>

The UK labour market ended 2025 on a disappointingly feeble note, with unemployment rising to 5.2%. Methodology and tax contributed, so the cyclical change isn’t so bad.Wage growth also slowed in 2025, with disagreement about the extent. Most measures remain above 4%, although the distorted public vs private split depressed the latter.Dovish BoE assumptions can lean on labour market weakness to cut again soon. We still lean towards the 30 April MPR, but soft CPI inflation could push Bailey to 19 March.

영국: 올해는 운이 없는 한 해일까?