Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

Health and Happiness H&H International Holdings Ltd provides health care supplements. The Company offers pediatric nutritional and baby care products. Health and Happiness H&H International Holdings serves nutrition and wellness industries worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Here we introduce Modtris as a drastic approach to credit analysis.</li>
<li>Modrist uses historical financial data to compute simultation of multi-dimentional dynamics.</li>
<li>Fair value of H&amp;H, according to Modtris, is quite close to the current price. We see Modtrist as an alternative to arrive at bond fair value without human bias.</li>
</ul>


Here we introduce Modtris as a drastic approach to credit analysis.
Modrist uses historical financial data to compute simultation of multi-dimentional dynamics.
Fair value of H&amp;H, according to Modtris, is quite close to the current price. We see Modtrist as an alternative to arrive at bond fair value without human bias.


<ul>
<li>We initiate our coverage on Health and Happiness International Holding Limited (H&amp;H)’s BTSDF 9.125% 24Jul2028.</li>
<li>H&amp;H has refinanced USD320m of 2026 notes with the new USD300m of 2028 notes at a 9.125% coupon. The new bonds help extend its debt maturity and lower financing cost.</li>
<li>The bonds offer diversification and a chance to invest back in China after the fallout in the property sector. We assign an OVERWEIGHT recommendation.</li>
</ul>


We initiate our coverage on Health and Happiness International Holding Limited (H&amp;H)’s BTSDF 9.125% 24Jul2028.
H&amp;H has refinanced USD320m of 2026 notes with the new USD300m of 2028 notes at a 9.125% coupon. The new bonds help extend its debt maturity and lower financing cost.
The bonds offer diversification and a chance to invest back in China after the fallout in the property sector. We assign an OVERWEIGHT recommendation.


iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

<ul>
<li>This report will be different as we look into the latest THB bond offerings and give our opinion to Thai retail investors. </li>
<li>Thai rates will continue to be depressed in an attempt to spur the economy.</li>
<li>For Thai retailed investors, we believe Sermsang Power’s 2.33-year THB bonds with 4.5% are the most attractive among peers.</li>
</ul>


This report will be different as we look into the latest THB bond offerings and give our opinion to Thai retail investors. 
Thai rates will continue to be depressed in an attempt to spur the economy.
For Thai retailed investors, we believe Sermsang Power’s 2.33-year THB bonds with 4.5% are the most attractive among peers.


Asian Bond Monitor: Baht Bond Bummers (“BBB”)

CHINAGOV CDS USD SR 5Y D14 (CCHIN1U5 CORP)

<ul>
<li>Asian USD high-yield bonds have outperformed on an improving sentiment toward emerging market credits.</li>
<li>China 5-year CDS has declined 14 bps since June and we expect non-property Chinese credits to have more capital inflow on  the hunt for a better yield.</li>
<li>We are in favor of Chinese high-yield credits with recurring revenue and operate in more defensive industries such as consumer non-discretionary, utilities, and pharmaceuticals.</li>
</ul>


Asian USD high-yield bonds have outperformed on an improving sentiment toward emerging market credits.
China 5-year CDS has declined 14 bps since June and we expect non-property Chinese credits to have more capital inflow on  the hunt for a better yield.
We are in favor of Chinese high-yield credits with recurring revenue and operate in more defensive industries such as consumer non-discretionary, utilities, and pharmaceuticals.


Asian Bond Monitor: Chinese Bonds Are Back

Debt Capital Markets

iShares MSCI Thailand / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We sample blue-chip and household Thai corporations and plot the 12-month probability of default (PD) using iRAP</li>
<li>The median 12-month PD of the above samples was 11.15 basis points (bps), up from 5bps last November, with a trend showing continuing deterioration in the next 12 months</li>
<li>We expect more political upheaval and economic adjustment from the military conflict with Cambodia and the19% tariff on exports to the US to be quite detrimental to the Thai economy.</li>
</ul>


We sample blue-chip and household Thai corporations and plot the 12-month probability of default (PD) using iRAP
The median 12-month PD of the above samples was 11.15 basis points (bps), up from 5bps last November, with a trend showing continuing deterioration in the next 12 months
We expect more political upheaval and economic adjustment from the military conflict with Cambodia and the19% tariff on exports to the US to be quite detrimental to the Thai economy.


Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

* Fixed income research professional with 20+ years of experience covering financial institutions, corporates, and sovereigns with a global client network.
* Supervisory experience since 2002
* FINRA's supervisory analyst from 2006-2008
* Responsible officer and an SFC-licensed analyst since 2011
* Regular speaker at fixed income events in Asia
* Ranked Asian 4th Best Fixed Income Analyst (FinanceAsia, Nov’08)
* Ranked Asian 2nd Best Corporate Credit Analyst (FMAP, June’07)

Warut Promboon
Independent Asian Credit Research
• Bondcritic

Health & Happiness: MODTRIS

Introducing Modtris: a data-driven approach to credit analysis that provides fair value estimates close to current prices, reducing human bias in...

Bondcritic

Health & Happiness: On Deleveraging Path

Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Baht Bond Bummers (“BBB”)

Analysis of latest THB bond offerings in Thailand reveals Sermsang Power's 2.33-year bonds with 4.5% as top choice for retail investors in...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Chinese Bonds Are Back

Asian high-yield bonds, particularly Chinese credits, are performing well due to improving sentiment towards emerging markets, with a focus on non...

Bondcritic

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...

Bondcritic

Health & Happiness: MODTRIS

​Introducing Modtris: a data-driven approach to credit analysis that provides fair value estimates close to current prices, reducing human bias in...

Bondcritic

Health & Happiness: On Deleveraging Path

​Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Baht Bond Bummers (“BBB”)

​Analysis of latest THB bond offerings in Thailand reveals Sermsang Power's 2.33-year bonds with 4.5% as top choice for retail investors in...

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Chinese Bonds Are Back

​Asian high-yield bonds, particularly Chinese credits, are performing well due to improving sentiment towards emerging markets, with a focus on non...

Bondcritic

Bond Market Monitor: Thai Corporations UnSmiled

​12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...

Bondcritic

Introducing Modtris: a data-driven approach to credit analysis that provides fair value estimates close to current prices, reducing human bias in...

Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....

Analysis of latest THB bond offerings in Thailand reveals Sermsang Power's 2.33-year bonds with 4.5% as top choice for retail investors in...

Asian high-yield bonds, particularly Chinese credits, are performing well due to improving sentiment towards emerging markets, with a focus on non...

12-month probability of default for Thai corporations is on the rise, with political and economic challenges ahead due to military conflict and...