Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. operates marine cargo and passenger transportation around the world.  The Company provides ocean liner, bulk carrier, car carrier, unscheduled specialized carrier, and energy transportation services. The Company also offers insurance, warehousing, and land transportation services.  Items transported include automobile, grain, petroleum, coal, iron ore, and wood chip.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-kisen-kaisha-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP)</a> today announced earnings. Ocean Network Express earnings were out earlier and beyond that, Consolidated Revs beat, OP faltered, but NP was spot on guidance.</li>
<li>Guidance for the year to March 2025 is well ahead of consensus on revenue, slightly ahead on OP, and just a wee bit ahead on NP. </li>
<li>But the company raised its 5yr MTMP Shareholder Return from ¥500bn to ¥700bn and set a new ¥100bn (5.5%) buyback to be executed in the next 3 months.</li>
</ul>



Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP) today announced earnings. Ocean Network Express earnings were out earlier and beyond that, Consolidated Revs beat, OP faltered, but NP was spot on guidance.
Guidance for the year to March 2025 is well ahead of consensus on revenue, slightly ahead on OP, and just a wee bit ahead on NP. 
But the company raised its 5yr MTMP Shareholder Return from ¥500bn to ¥700bn and set a new ¥100bn (5.5%) buyback to be executed in the next 3 months.


KLINE (9107) - More Profit, More Shareholder Return 3mo Buyback Inbound

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings / Event-Driven

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation and trucking services.

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)

<ul>
<li>Today, after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> released a required (by the FIEA) Target Opinion Statement saying "Opinion Withheld."</li>
<li>C&amp;F notes that it had received 9 possible counter-proposals, offered due dili to a certain extent, and by May 1, had 4 binding offers. </li>
<li>There are interesting competitive dynamics at play here, but cross-holding concentration matters. The question is... <em>How much is enough?</em>
</li>
</ul>


Today, after the close, Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) released a required (by the FIEA) Target Opinion Statement saying "Opinion Withheld."
C&amp;F notes that it had received 9 possible counter-proposals, offered due dili to a certain extent, and by May 1, had 4 binding offers. 
There are interesting competitive dynamics at play here, but cross-holding concentration matters. The question is... How much is enough?



Chilled & Frozen's Target Opinion Statement; Chotto Matte (Four Counterbidders)

SeAH Steel Holdings Corporation manufactures and sells steel pipes. The Company produces and sells spiral, stainless, titanium tubes, and other products. SeAH Steel Holdings markets its products throughout Korea.

<ul>
<li>KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).</li>
<li>The reference period for the June 2024 index rebal event ended recently. In this insight, we take a look at our final expected ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li><em>There has been one change to our list of expected ADDs presented in my last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-kospi-200-jun-24-four-changes-likely" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>).</em></li>
</ul>


KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
The reference period for the June 2024 index rebal event ended recently. In this insight, we take a look at our final expected ADDs/DELs.
There has been one change to our list of expected ADDs presented in my last insight (link).


Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: One Last-Minute Change to Rankings

Sigma Healthcare Limited wholesales and distributes pharmaceutical products. The Company offers prescription, over-the-counter, and generic drugs. Sigma Healthcare serves customers in Australia.

<ul>
<li>In early December, pharmacy distributor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> arranged a "transformational merger" with mega chain Chemist Warehouse (CWG). Effectively a reverse takeover designed to get CWG listed.</li>
<li>SIG issued shares, raising cash, enabling it so NEWCO had high enough minimum float upon merging. Financial engineering for the win. SIG popped - a kind of IPO premium trade.</li>
<li>But plenty of people are against the deal, and ACCC hasn't yet opined (13 June is the provisional date), but on Thursday, S&amp;P announced SIG would join ASX200 despite risks.</li>
</ul>


In early December, pharmacy distributor Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) arranged a "transformational merger" with mega chain Chemist Warehouse (CWG). Effectively a reverse takeover designed to get CWG listed.
SIG issued shares, raising cash, enabling it so NEWCO had high enough minimum float upon merging. Financial engineering for the win. SIG popped - a kind of IPO premium trade.
But plenty of people are against the deal, and ACCC hasn't yet opined (13 June is the provisional date), but on Thursday, S&amp;P announced SIG would join ASX200 despite risks.


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): ASX200 Inclusion Now, MUCH More Squeezy Fun Later. Maybe...

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

SHINKO ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and markets advanced electronic materials, such as semiconductor packages, including leadframes, and PLP(Plastics Laminated Packages).  The Company markets its products worldwide through a network of sales offices in such places as the Philippines, Germany, and Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.</li>
<li>15wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 8wks ago, recommended taking profits.</li>
<li>Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 3.6% wider than at narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms, Ibiden.</li>
</ul>


When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
15wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco'd a buy. Then 8wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 3.6% wider than at narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms, Ibiden.


Shinko Electric (6967) - Break/Gap Risk Early May 2024 Update

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.