Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

<ul>
<li>China has tightened restrictions on online games again driving significant falls in names such as Tencent and NetEase. </li>
<li>While the move may surprise some given prior moves to restart approvals in our view the overall trend of regulation is not especially surprising. </li>
<li>In particular, the tightened regulations appear to target the most important drivers of mobile gaming profitability and today’s large drops may actually be underreactions.</li>
</ul>


China has tightened restrictions on online games again driving significant falls in names such as Tencent and NetEase. 
While the move may surprise some given prior moves to restart approvals in our view the overall trend of regulation is not especially surprising. 
In particular, the tightened regulations appear to target the most important drivers of mobile gaming profitability and today’s large drops may actually be underreactions.


DENSO CORPORATION manufactures electronic parts for automobiles.  The Company's products include automobile air conditioners, air bags, ignition systems, generators, power steering systems, and spark plugs with iridium electrode. The Company also produces communication equipment for mobile navigation system.

<ul>
<li>The trend of governance reform in Japan continues with Toyota, Toyota Industries and Aisin selling shares of Denso. </li>
<li>Denso is buffering some of the flow impact by repurchasing roughly half of the shares to be sold. </li>
<li>While the size of these moves is relatively large we believe their impact could be disproportionately large for the market as a whole.</li>
</ul>


The trend of governance reform in Japan continues with Toyota, Toyota Industries and Aisin selling shares of Denso. 
Denso is buffering some of the flow impact by repurchasing roughly half of the shares to be sold. 
While the size of these moves is relatively large we believe their impact could be disproportionately large for the market as a whole.


Denso – Thoughts On The Cross-Holdings Sell-Down

Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

<ul>
<li>Kokusai Electric announced its pricing range today, setting it rather tightly at ¥1,830-1,840. </li>
<li>This is slightly below the initial indicative price of ¥1,890 pointing to modest demand. </li>
<li>That is a rather more tepid response than we initially expected given that this is the first sizable offering in some time.</li>
</ul>


Kokusai Electric announced its pricing range today, setting it rather tightly at ¥1,830-1,840. 
This is slightly below the initial indicative price of ¥1,890 pointing to modest demand. 
That is a rather more tepid response than we initially expected given that this is the first sizable offering in some time.


Kokusai Electric IPO – Weaker Demand Than We Expected

<ul>
<li>Early last year there were articles suggesting that KKR would IPO Kokusai Electric at a valuation of about ¥700bn. </li>
<li>A year plus later the company is now set to IPO for something on the order of ¥436bn. </li>
<li>We are sure KKR is breathing a sigh of relief that they didn’t unload shares 60% higher and can now offer other investors some “value”.</li>
</ul>


Early last year there were articles suggesting that KKR would IPO Kokusai Electric at a valuation of about ¥700bn. 
A year plus later the company is now set to IPO for something on the order of ¥436bn. 
We are sure KKR is breathing a sigh of relief that they didn’t unload shares 60% higher and can now offer other investors some “value”.


Kokusai Electric IPO – Don’t Worry, This’ll Be Fine Too

Krafton, Inc. operates as a game development company. The Company develops console games, mobile games, computer games, and other related products. Krafton markets its products throughout South Korea.

<p>We previously discussed our thoughts on Krafton’s valuation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/krafton-ipo-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Krafton IPO - Valuation | Smartkarma</a>. Since then, Krafton has lowered its asking range from KRW458,00-557,000 to KRW400,000-498,000 while reducing the number of new share offered from 7,030,000 to 5,624,000. They didn’t reduce the number of existing shares offered though, no. Somewhat fitting perhaps for a company that is over-reliant on a game whose battlefield you enter by parachute. They should colour the parachutes golden if they manage to pull this off.</p>

We previously discussed our thoughts on Krafton’s valuation in Krafton IPO - Valuation | Smartkarma. Since then, Krafton has lowered its asking range from KRW458,00-557,000 to KRW400,000-498,000 while reducing the number of new share offered from 7,030,000 to 5,624,000. They didn’t reduce the number of existing shares offered though, no. Somewhat fitting perhaps for a company that is over-reliant on a game whose battlefield you enter by parachute. They should colour the parachutes golden if they manage to pull this off.

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy