Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>The World Cup tailwind might prove to be less positive than previously expected, and there might be some overhang risks in 2H26.</li>
<li>For another quarter, we are overall below consensus, yet the gap is lower vs. in the previous 2 quarters.</li>
<li>Amid some PT updates to the downside, we update our FY26 year-end and 12M MEXBOL PTs to 71,000 and 75,500, respectively (2.5% lower on average).</li>
</ul>


The World Cup tailwind might prove to be less positive than previously expected, and there might be some overhang risks in 2H26.
For another quarter, we are overall below consensus, yet the gap is lower vs. in the previous 2 quarters.
Amid some PT updates to the downside, we update our FY26 year-end and 12M MEXBOL PTs to 71,000 and 75,500, respectively (2.5% lower on average).


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 2Q25 Preview

Equity Bottom-Up

CIBANCO SA Institucion de Banca Multiple Trust CIB/3332 operates as a real estate development company.

<ul>
<li>FIBRA SOMA offers exposure to a portfolio of premium retail, office, and hospitality assets located in Mexico’s most dynamic real estate markets.</li>
<li>SOMA has remained disciplined in its strategy, concentrating capital on assets characterized by premium locations with high barriers to entry due to land constraints, permitting requirements, and replacement costs.</li>
<li>The quality of SOMA’s portfolio is reflected in its operating metrics.</li>
</ul>


FIBRA SOMA offers exposure to a portfolio of premium retail, office, and hospitality assets located in Mexico’s most dynamic real estate markets.
SOMA has remained disciplined in its strategy, concentrating capital on assets characterized by premium locations with high barriers to entry due to land constraints, permitting requirements, and replacement costs.
The quality of SOMA’s portfolio is reflected in its operating metrics.


Actinver Research - FIBRA SOMA: Worth the Wait (Coverage Initiation)

Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV operates as an airline. The Company offers air transportation services, as well as promotes passenger loyalty programs. Grupo Aeromexico serves customers worldwide.

<ul><li>We are initiating coverage on AERO with a 12M PT of P$42.0 per share and an Outperform rating.</li><li>Our PT implies an upside potential of 40% over the stock’s current trading price.</li><li>In addition, we provide deep insights into oil industry topics.</li></ul>

We are initiating coverage on AERO with a 12M PT of P$42.0 per share and an Outperform rating.Our PT implies an upside potential of 40% over the stock’s current trading price.In addition, we provide deep insights into oil industry topics.

Actinver Research - AERO Launch and an Oil Deep Dive (Sector Initiation)

<ul>
<li>The industrial real estate sector delivered another solid quarter at the top-line level, VESTA led the group with a 14% YoY revenue increase in USD terms, surpassing the upper end of its full-year guidance range.</li>
<li>Within the sector we continue to prefer VESTA and NEXT, as both companies continue to benefit from resilient leasing activity, strong exposure to premium logistics markets, and healthy operating fundamentals.</li>
<li>We remain constructive on the long-term outlook for the industrial sector, supported by limited supply in key central markets, stable occupancy levels, and improving visibility around manufacturing and logistics demand.</li>
</ul>


The industrial real estate sector delivered another solid quarter at the top-line level, VESTA led the group with a 14% YoY revenue increase in USD terms, surpassing the upper end of its full-year guidance range.
Within the sector we continue to prefer VESTA and NEXT, as both companies continue to benefit from resilient leasing activity, strong exposure to premium logistics markets, and healthy operating fundamentals.
We remain constructive on the long-term outlook for the industrial sector, supported by limited supply in key central markets, stable occupancy levels, and improving visibility around manufacturing and logistics demand.


Actinver Research - Real Estate post 1Q26 update

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<li>We continue to see signs of a K-shaped consumer environment in Mexico (and the U.S.), as some high-earners remain more resilient (e.g., the City Market customer), while the race to the bottom of the socioeconomic spectrum leaves a few players solidly winning share (e.g., TBBB).</li>
<li>With no major catalysts expected for the year —as macro conditions remain soft and the World Cup tailwind is not a panacea—, we mostly lower our price targets (on a median basis), while leaving our ratings unchanged.</li>
<li>Overall, most companies underperformed vs. our estimates and consensus at the sales level, while slightly better in terms of margins. </li>
</ul>


We continue to see signs of a K-shaped consumer environment in Mexico (and the U.S.), as some high-earners remain more resilient (e.g., the City Market customer), while the race to the bottom of the socioeconomic spectrum leaves a few players solidly winning share (e.g., TBBB).
With no major catalysts expected for the year —as macro conditions remain soft and the World Cup tailwind is not a panacea—, we mostly lower our price targets (on a median basis), while leaving our ratings unchanged.
Overall, most companies underperformed vs. our estimates and consensus at the sales level, while slightly better in terms of margins. 


Actinver Research - Consumer post 1Q26: Still Not O-K

Our product offering is based on award winning forecasts and a deep understanding of artificial intelligence tools. 
We cover the Mexican economy with in-depth sector and state knowledge, as well as the integration with the U.S., providing high added value studies. 
To provide comprehensive coverage, we analyze the main macroeconomic variables, sectors, indexes and market information. 
Through solid statistical and computational tools we generate targeted investment strategies for clients with advanced investment profiles such as pension funds, hedge funds and others.