Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Novo Nordisk A/S develops, produces, and markets pharmaceutical products. The Company focuses on diabetes care and offers insulin delivery systems and other diabetes products. Novo Nordisk also works in areas such as haemostatis management, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The Company offers educational and training materials. Novo Nordisk markets worldwide.

<ul>
<li>FDA approval of Wegovy is overvalued at approx. $460 billion. Market exaggerated the worth without proper assessment of weight loss results and risks associated with the drug.</li>
<li>Clinical trials showed a 14.9% weight loss with diet and exercise; real-world results would be lower. Impact on BMI for obese individuals won't be significant. Long-term use is questionable.</li>
<li>Competition in the GLP-1 market is fierce. Novo Nordisk faces challenges in India and China, increased capex spending, and risks from compounding pharmacies and potential legal issues.</li>
</ul>


FDA approval of Wegovy is overvalued at approx. $460 billion. Market exaggerated the worth without proper assessment of weight loss results and risks associated with the drug.
Clinical trials showed a 14.9% weight loss with diet and exercise; real-world results would be lower. Impact on BMI for obese individuals won't be significant. Long-term use is questionable.
Competition in the GLP-1 market is fierce. Novo Nordisk faces challenges in India and China, increased capex spending, and risks from compounding pharmacies and potential legal issues.


Novo Nordisk: Is the FDA Approval of Wegovy Worth an Extra $460 Bn?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 2022, there were 20 million new cancer cases, and almost half of the cases were recorded in Asia.</li>
<li>Global oncology spend is forecast to grow at 11.99% between 2023 and 2027, and this is expected to be almost three times faster than the growth of total pharma spend.</li>
<li>Emerging companies continue to make big strides in oncology drug development and made up 71% of the new drug pipeline in 2022.</li>
</ul>


In 2022, there were 20 million new cancer cases, and almost half of the cases were recorded in Asia.
Global oncology spend is forecast to grow at 11.99% between 2023 and 2027, and this is expected to be almost three times faster than the growth of total pharma spend.
Emerging companies continue to make big strides in oncology drug development and made up 71% of the new drug pipeline in 2022.


Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

<ul>
<li>Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.</li>
<li>China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.</li>
<li>We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.</li>
</ul>


Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.
China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.
We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.


Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

<ul>
<li>There has been a significant increase in out-licensing deals in China over the last four years; numbers are at an all-time high. </li>
<li>There is a big deviation between actions of multinational drug companies and equity investors - over a similar period, the FTSE Pharma and Biotech index is down over 50%.</li>
<li>We have witnessed an improved environment for aspiring local Chinese biotech and pharma companies.</li>
</ul>


There has been a significant increase in out-licensing deals in China over the last four years; numbers are at an all-time high. 
There is a big deviation between actions of multinational drug companies and equity investors - over a similar period, the FTSE Pharma and Biotech index is down over 50%.
We have witnessed an improved environment for aspiring local Chinese biotech and pharma companies.


What Do Multinational Pharma Companies Know that Equity Investors Don’t?

<ul>
<li>China’s pricing process is becoming more predictable. There have been several positive changes that favour innovation.</li>
<li>As a comparison, the already complex European system is becoming more complex, and is implementing further price cuts.</li>
<li>Several other countries including the US are currently implementing or looking to implement price controls.</li>
</ul>


China’s pricing process is becoming more predictable. There have been several positive changes that favour innovation.
As a comparison, the already complex European system is becoming more complex, and is implementing further price cuts.
Several other countries including the US are currently implementing or looking to implement price controls.


Understanding Drug Imbursement Price Cuts in China

A multi-skilled investment professional with 20+ years’ experience in the developed and emerging markets across all sectors, and a strong focus on healthcare. Most of my time has been spent as a buyside and independent equity analyst. My approach is a combination of bottom-up and top-down analysis, with a strong bias to qualitative analysis.

Avien Pillay
Healthcare equity analyst - emerging & dev mkts
• daaimon

Novo Nordisk: Is the FDA Approval of Wegovy Worth an Extra $460 Bn?

In light of the bullish Innovent report, and the ongoing news about new GLP-1s in the pipeline, this "Novo Nordisk - critical analysis" provides a...

Avien Pillay

Oncology Will Continue to Dominate

The oncology category has recorded the highest growth over the last five years. Companies with oncology portfolios and new oncology modalities,...

Avien Pillay

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Mazdutide's strong results will position it well against the competition, and the valuation gap will narrow. The oncology portfolio will continue...

Avien Pillay

What Do Multinational Pharma Companies Know that Equity Investors Don’t?

Out-licensing deals in China are booming, yet the Pharma and Biotech index is down over 50%. What are equity investors missing?

Avien Pillay

Understanding Drug Imbursement Price Cuts in China

China’s drug pricing process is becoming more predictable. There have been several positive changes that favour innovation.

Avien Pillay

Novo Nordisk: Is the FDA Approval of Wegovy Worth an Extra $460 Bn?

In light of the bullish Innovent report, and the ongoing news about new GLP-1s in the pipeline, this "Novo Nordisk - critical analysis" provides a...

Avien Pillay

Oncology Will Continue to Dominate

The oncology category has recorded the highest growth over the last five years. Companies with oncology portfolios and new oncology modalities,...

Avien Pillay

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Mazdutide's strong results will position it well against the competition, and the valuation gap will narrow. The oncology portfolio will continue...

Avien Pillay

What Do Multinational Pharma Companies Know that Equity Investors Don’t?

​Out-licensing deals in China are booming, yet the Pharma and Biotech index is down over 50%. What are equity investors missing?

Avien Pillay

Understanding Drug Imbursement Price Cuts in China

China’s drug pricing process is becoming more predictable. There have been several positive changes that favour innovation.

Avien Pillay

Out-licensing deals in China are booming, yet the Pharma and Biotech index is down over 50%. What are equity investors missing?