Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is an exchange-traded fund domiciled in the USA. The investment objective is to reflect the performance of spot bitcoin.

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.</li>
<li>The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.</li>
<li>Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.
The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.
Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.


Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!!

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.</li>
<li>The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.</li>
<li>We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)

Equity Capital Markets

Zijin Gold is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining (ZM), located outside of China. Leveraging ZM’s competitive advantage in management of exploration, development and operation of low-grade and refractory resources, ZG has emerged as a global leading and market-oriented gold mining company, vertically integrated through the value chain.

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far.  Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.</li>
<li>Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings.  With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chery-automobile-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39918:1" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile (9973 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> were the largest IPOs of the year while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegbio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40924:1" rel="noopener">PegBio (2565 HK)</a> has had the best return.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far.  Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.
Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings.  With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.
Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , Chery Automobile (9973 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) were the largest IPOs of the year while PegBio (2565 HK) has had the best return.


<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market continues to consolidate during the early stage of its Secular Bull Market.  Strength and momentum indicators show further weakness ahead.</li>
<li>Materials and healthcare sectors have lost momentum with other sectors trendless.  Analysts target 20% price gains in materials sector over the next year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-taiping-insurance-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:489:1" rel="noopener">China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)</a>  shares fell on Thursday on concerns over the insurer’s estimated HK$2.6B exposure to a HK residential project at the center of a deadly fire.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market continues to consolidate during the early stage of its Secular Bull Market.  Strength and momentum indicators show further weakness ahead.
Materials and healthcare sectors have lost momentum with other sectors trendless.  Analysts target 20% price gains in materials sector over the next year.

China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)  shares fell on Thursday on concerns over the insurer’s estimated HK$2.6B exposure to a HK residential project at the center of a deadly fire.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 27)

<ul>
<li>Prime Minister Takaichi started a firestorm with her comments about attacking  China over the Taiwan issue. Japan's missile deployment near Taiwan further inflamed the situation.</li>
<li>President Xi called President Trump on the matter, and Trump followed up with a call to Takaichi soon after.   Takaichi's miscalculation in provoking China may have led to U.S. concessions.</li>
<li>PM Takaichi's fiscally reckless budget is adding fuel to a fire as the yen, JGBs, and stock market are falling simultaneously.  Inflation, currently at 3% is rising again.</li>
</ul>


Prime Minister Takaichi started a firestorm with her comments about attacking  China over the Taiwan issue. Japan's missile deployment near Taiwan further inflamed the situation.
President Xi called President Trump on the matter, and Trump followed up with a call to Takaichi soon after.   Takaichi's miscalculation in provoking China may have led to U.S. concessions.
PM Takaichi's fiscally reckless budget is adding fuel to a fire as the yen, JGBs, and stock market are falling simultaneously.  Inflation, currently at 3% is rising again.


Japan: CAN TAKAICHI SURVIVE THE COMING TSUNAMI?

Asian Hedge Fund manager based in HK/SG with over 20 years of experience managing Asian Long/Short Equity funds. Macroeconomic top-down analysis generates thematic investments that are further researched from the bottom-up. Research is supplemented with advanced technical analysis. 
Previous experience includes M&A with Morgan Stanley and CPA with Deloitte in NYC. Wharton MBA.