Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump has already entered negotiations with President Xi which may result in a temporary refrain from imposing tariffs.</li>
<li>Trump has indicated that TikTok will now be part of a broader deal with China which he outlined as a potential 50/50 joint venture with China. </li>
<li>China has more leverage in trade negotiations with the US than it had during Trump's first term.</li>
</ul>


Trump has already entered negotiations with President Xi which may result in a temporary refrain from imposing tariffs.
Trump has indicated that TikTok will now be part of a broader deal with China which he outlined as a potential 50/50 joint venture with China. 
China has more leverage in trade negotiations with the US than it had during Trump's first term.


Trump's Tariffs and China: THE STATE OF PLAY

<ul>
<li>The US Net International Investment Position (NIIP) as a debtor country has ballooned since the GFC, attracting global demand for US assets, which feeds demand for the dollar.</li>
<li>Historically high dollar demand has allowed the US to enjoy the benefits of low interest rates and created a historic bull market in US equities.</li>
<li>As the US continues to use its currency for geopolitical purposes, countries have begun to question dollar hegemony.  The US fights against any country that tries to weaken the dollar</li>
</ul>


The US Net International Investment Position (NIIP) as a debtor country has ballooned since the GFC, attracting global demand for US assets, which feeds demand for the dollar.
Historically high dollar demand has allowed the US to enjoy the benefits of low interest rates and created a historic bull market in US equities.
As the US continues to use its currency for geopolitical purposes, countries have begun to question dollar hegemony.  The US fights against any country that tries to weaken the dollar


The US Dollar and the Only Chart that Matters!

Equity Bottom-Up

CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Company Limited operates as a ship leasing company. The Company offers loans, shipbroking, and leasing services. CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping operates in Hong Kong.

CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co Ltd (3877 HK)

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong and China shares have outperformed most Asian markets over the last year.  In HK the consumer discretionary sector has lost strength and momentum over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cssc-hong-kong-shipping-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28068:1" rel="noopener">CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co Ltd (3877 HK)</a> was rated BUY after reporting strong results.  Analysts have a target price of $2.50 on the stock.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a> has shown earnings growth exceeding revenue growth for the last seven years. Technically, the stock looks weak near term, but analysts project 60% upside.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong and China shares have outperformed most Asian markets over the last year.  In HK the consumer discretionary sector has lost strength and momentum over the last 4 weeks.

CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Co Ltd (3877 HK) was rated BUY after reporting strong results.  Analysts have a target price of $2.50 on the stock.

Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK) has shown earnings growth exceeding revenue growth for the last seven years. Technically, the stock looks weak near term, but analysts project 60% upside.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (January 10)

GDS Holdings Limited operates as a leading developer and operator of data centers. The Company offers colocation and managed services, as well as direct private connection to major public cloud platforms. GDS Holdings serves large Internet companies, financial institutions, telecommunications, and IT service providers in China.

<ul>
<li>Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23649:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US)</a> had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.
</li>
</ul>


Mainland investors continue their record southbound purchases during 2024 and into 2025. 

GDS Holdings (9698 HK) , GDS Holdings (ADR) (GDS US) had a break out from its triangle formation in its continuation pattern.  The company may list its China REIT assets.


Tencent (700 HK) had a symmetrical pattern breakdown after the announcement that the US pentagon had placed the company on its blacklist.  The company began a large share buyback.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

Sun Art Retail Group Ltd. operates hypermarkets.  The Company retails food and offers amenities such as restaurants, automated teller machines, pharmacies and dry cleaners.

<ul>
<li>It's time to revisit the network of Alibaba's ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> ) affiliated listed companies for near term investment opportunities</li>
<li>After investing in an ecosystem of online and offline companies over the last 10 years, Alibaba is rapidly restructuring its businesses to refocus on its most profitable opportunities</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a> will benefit from the synergies of Baba's restructuring</li>
</ul>


It's time to revisit the network of Alibaba's ( Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) ) affiliated listed companies for near term investment opportunities
After investing in an ecosystem of online and offline companies over the last 10 years, Alibaba is rapidly restructuring its businesses to refocus on its most profitable opportunities

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK) will benefit from the synergies of Baba's restructuring


BABA's Babies: They're All Grown Up Now! Sun Art Retail: A Restructuring Opportunity

Asian Hedge Fund manager based in HK/SG with over 20 years of experience managing Asian Long/Short Equity funds. Macroeconomic top-down analysis generates thematic investments that are further researched from the bottom-up. Research is supplemented with advanced technical analysis. 
Previous experience includes M&A with Morgan Stanley and CPA with Deloitte in NYC. Wharton MBA.

David Mudd
Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

Trump's Tariffs and China: THE STATE OF PLAY

Trump has already begun to posture his negotiations with China on trade. The initial calls between Trump and Xi focused on ending wars, reducing...

David Mudd

The US Dollar and the Only Chart that Matters!

Bessent will tell a Senate committee maintaining the dollar as the world's reserve currency is critical to US economic health and the nation's...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (January 10)

HK/China markets have outperformed other Asian markets since the beginning of 2024. In HK the consumer discretionary sector has lost momentum as...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (January 6)

Mainland investors purchased a record amount of HK shares during 2024. GDS Holding announced that it may list its China assets in a REIT. Tencent...

David Mudd

BABA's Babies: They're All Grown Up Now! Sun Art Retail: A Restructuring Opportunity

BABA accepted an offer to sell its 78% stake in Sun Art to DCP Capital, a PE firm. The price is a significant discount of 44% to its last traded...

David Mudd