US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

Medline Industries is a medical supply company, manufacturer and distributor.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medline-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45954:1" rel="noopener">Medline (MDLN US)</a> goes public on 17 December on Nasdaq with an estimated market cap of $40bn, 27% lower than the consensus of $55bn.</li>
<li>Inclusion in US indices is expected in March 2026, as the security meets US eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>Inclusion in Global indices is expected in May and June 2026 with a potential delay to August due to low float cap.</li>
</ul>



Medline (MDLN US) goes public on 17 December on Nasdaq with an estimated market cap of $40bn, 27% lower than the consensus of $55bn.
Inclusion in US indices is expected in March 2026, as the security meets US eligibility criteria before the lock-up expiry.
Inclusion in Global indices is expected in May and June 2026 with a potential delay to August due to low float cap.


Medline (MDLN US): Global & US Index Inclusion; Overestimated Valuation?

Seagate Technology Holdings Public Limited Company offers computer hardware products. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets hard disk drives for enterprise applications, client compute applications, client non-compute applications, personal data backup systems, portable external storage systems and digital media systems.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seagate-technology-holdings-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9129:1" rel="noopener">Seagate Technology (STX US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-digital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1094:1" rel="noopener">Western Digital (WDC US)</a> are the top forecasted additions with the highest price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trade-desk-inc-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26467:1" rel="noopener">Trade Desk (TTD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lululemon-athletica-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8316:1" rel="noopener">Lululemon Athletica (LULU US)</a> are the forecasted deletions with the largest price drop.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ferrovial-se-d1237de2-ee34-4fbb-8db7-53dd686904f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46086:1" rel="noopener">Ferrovial (FER US)</a> can be a surprise addition depending on the treatment of its foreign listing.</li>
</ul>



Seagate Technology (STX US), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and Western Digital (WDC US) are the top forecasted additions with the highest price surge.

Trade Desk (TTD US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU US) are the forecasted deletions with the largest price drop.

Ferrovial (FER US) can be a surprise addition depending on the treatment of its foreign listing.


Nasdaq100 December 2025 Forecast (Final): 12 Changes

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> became eligible at the last minute for S&amp;P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.</li>
<li>The company's market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&amp;P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.</li>
</ul>



Marvell Technology (MRVL US) became eligible at the last minute for S&amp;P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.
The company's market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&amp;P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.


Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system installation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services. The Company's commercial and industrial markets include office buildings, retail centers, apartment complexes, hotels, manufacturing plants, and government facilities.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crh-plc-054117b2-cd70-470a-9efc-8f6fab2c83ec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28655:1" rel="noopener">CRH (CRH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfort-systems-usa-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6730:1" rel="noopener">Comfort Systems USA (FIX US)</a> are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pure-storage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27421:1" rel="noopener">Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solstice-advanced-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45953:1" rel="noopener">Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US)</a> face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertiv-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33140:1" rel="noopener">Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US)</a> has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kellogg-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16090:1" rel="noopener">Kellogg Co (K US)</a> which is still pending.</li>
</ul>



CRH (CRH US) and Comfort Systems USA (FIX US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.

Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS US) face reduced conviction due to sector balance and turnover.

Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT US) has a higher probability of inclusion following the acquisition of Kellogg Co (K US) which is still pending.


S&P500 December 2025 Final Forecast: FIX & CRH Leading the Pack

Verisure Holding AB operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs, sells, and installs burglar alarms, water and smoke detectors, security panels, smart plugs, inertia sensors, cameras, and voting units. Verisure Holding serves customers worldwide.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisure-holding-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43889:1" rel="noopener">Verisure Holding (VSURE SS)</a> is forecasted to be added at a market cap of ~$19bn following its IPO on 8 October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metlen-energy-metals-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45704:1" rel="noopener">Metlen Energy &amp; Metals (MTLN LN)</a> is expected to be added at a market cap of ~$6bn due to a change of incorporation and primary listing from Greece to UK.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schibsted-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22250:1" rel="noopener">Vend Marketplaces ASA (VEND NO)</a> is projected to be added at a market cap of ~$6bn because of the unification of its share class structure.</li>
</ul>



Verisure Holding (VSURE SS) is forecasted to be added at a market cap of ~$19bn following its IPO on 8 October.

Metlen Energy &amp; Metals (MTLN LN) is expected to be added at a market cap of ~$6bn due to a change of incorporation and primary listing from Greece to UK.

Vend Marketplaces ASA (VEND NO) is projected to be added at a market cap of ~$6bn because of the unification of its share class structure.


STOXX Europe600 Dec25 Forecast: VSURE, VEND & MTLN Leading Top Additions

Index Rebalance professional of US, EU and Global Indices. Specialized in shareholder structure and index free float calculation, SPACs, quarterly rebalance predictions of US-EU indices and cross-index implications of corporate actions such as M&A's, Spin-offs and IPOs.

All forecasts and calculations are estimates derived from a combination of public sources considered reliable. These sources include, but are not limited to, exchange and regulatory filings, company announcements, and ETFs. While best efforts are made to maximize accuracy, estimates and predictions are subject to uncertainty.

No index data are used.