Equity Analyst

Equity Bottom-Up

360 Finance, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a digital finance platform to render loans and capital contributions. 360 Finance serves clients in China.

<ul>
<li>Revenue held up in 3Q25 as credit-driven services offset weakness in platform services, while regulatory and macro pressures continued to drive a strategic shift toward capital-heavy lending.</li>
<li>Provisions surged due to regulatory-driven business mix changes rather than asset-quality deterioration, pushing cost of risk sharply higher and weighing on profitability.</li>
<li>Despite lower FY25 guidance and reduced RoE, valuation remains attractive with meaningful upside supported by a higher target P/B and strong total return potential.</li>
</ul>


Revenue held up in 3Q25 as credit-driven services offset weakness in platform services, while regulatory and macro pressures continued to drive a strategic shift toward capital-heavy lending.
Provisions surged due to regulatory-driven business mix changes rather than asset-quality deterioration, pushing cost of risk sharply higher and weighing on profitability.
Despite lower FY25 guidance and reduced RoE, valuation remains attractive with meaningful upside supported by a higher target P/B and strong total return potential.


Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Rising Risk Costs Temper Otherwise Decent 3Q25 Result

<ul>
<li>QFIN shares are down ~19% MTD on regulatory concerns in China’s consumer finance sector, though the proposed credit-risk sharing rules may only modestly impact near-term RoE (1–3ppt).</li>
<li>While speculation over a lower NFRA loan yield cap persists, QFIN’s current yield profile suggests limited sensitivity; any tangible financial impact will depend on actual regulation rollout.</li>
<li>QFIN’s 0.9x P/B reflects overly bearish loss expectations. Even under a bear case with a 5ppt RoE reduction, the stock offers 56% upside, implying a fair value of $34.</li>
</ul>


QFIN shares are down ~19% MTD on regulatory concerns in China’s consumer finance sector, though the proposed credit-risk sharing rules may only modestly impact near-term RoE (1–3ppt).
While speculation over a lower NFRA loan yield cap persists, QFIN’s current yield profile suggests limited sensitivity; any tangible financial impact will depend on actual regulation rollout.
QFIN’s 0.9x P/B reflects overly bearish loss expectations. Even under a bear case with a 5ppt RoE reduction, the stock offers 56% upside, implying a fair value of $34.


Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Buying on Pullbacks Still Makes Sense Here

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.</li>
<li>Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.</li>
<li>Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.</li>
</ul>


New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.
Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.
Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.


Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

THE SHIGA BANK, LTD. is a regional bank mainly operating in Shiga.  The Bank also provides financial services including credit card and leasing as well as data management services.

<ul>
<li>Shiga Bank is well-leveraged to Japan’s rate hike cycle and regional revitalization strategy, with higher market-rate loan exposure than peers, enabling stronger earnings sensitivity to rising rates.</li>
<li>Core profitability is improving, driven by double-digit NII growth and rising NIMs. A CET1 ratio of 14.0% supports capital returns, selective M&amp;A, and ¥700bn in planned loan growth through 2029.</li>
<li>Despite a +63% YTD rally, shares remain undervalued at 0.7x P/B. Our target of ¥7,850/share implies ~+20% upside, supported by improving RoE, operational efficiencies, and capital deployment.</li>
</ul>


Shiga Bank is well-leveraged to Japan’s rate hike cycle and regional revitalization strategy, with higher market-rate loan exposure than peers, enabling stronger earnings sensitivity to rising rates.
Core profitability is improving, driven by double-digit NII growth and rising NIMs. A CET1 ratio of 14.0% supports capital returns, selective M&amp;A, and ¥700bn in planned loan growth through 2029.
Despite a +63% YTD rally, shares remain undervalued at 0.7x P/B. Our target of ¥7,850/share implies ~+20% upside, supported by improving RoE, operational efficiencies, and capital deployment.


Shiga Bank (8366 JP): High Capital, Low Valuation - Positioned to Ride Japan’s Banking Recovery

Experienced equity research analyst with a global focus, dedicated to producing high-conviction, value-adding investment calls that elevate client performance.

DVD
Equity Analyst

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Rising Risk Costs Temper Otherwise Decent 3Q25 Result

Revenue held up in 3Q25 due to credit-driven services, but provisions surged, impacting profitability. Despite lower guidance, valuation remains...

DVD

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Buying on Pullbacks Still Makes Sense Here

QFIN shares fell 19% (MTD) on regulatory concerns in China, though RoE impact appears modest; stock offers 95% upside in the base case and 56% in...

DVD

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

New Chinese rules increase risk sharing with banks, impacting Qfin's CoR. Management boosts controls and provisions. Fair value seen at $43/share...

DVD

Shiga Bank (8366 JP): High Capital, Low Valuation - Positioned to Ride Japan’s Banking Recovery

Shiga Bank positioned for growth with strong earnings sensitivity to rising rates, supported by improving profitability and undervalued shares....

DVD

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Rising Risk Costs Temper Otherwise Decent 3Q25 Result

​Revenue held up in 3Q25 due to credit-driven services, but provisions surged, impacting profitability. Despite lower guidance, valuation remains...

DVD

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Buying on Pullbacks Still Makes Sense Here

​QFIN shares fell 19% (MTD) on regulatory concerns in China, though RoE impact appears modest; stock offers 95% upside in the base case and 56% in...

DVD

Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.

New Chinese rules increase risk sharing with banks, impacting Qfin's CoR. Management boosts controls and provisions. Fair value seen at $43/share...

DVD

Shiga Bank (8366 JP): High Capital, Low Valuation - Positioned to Ride Japan’s Banking Recovery

​Shiga Bank positioned for growth with strong earnings sensitivity to rising rates, supported by improving profitability and undervalued shares....

DVD

Revenue held up in 3Q25 due to credit-driven services, but provisions surged, impacting profitability. Despite lower guidance, valuation remains...

QFIN shares fell 19% (MTD) on regulatory concerns in China, though RoE impact appears modest; stock offers 95% upside in the base case and 56% in...

Shiga Bank positioned for growth with strong earnings sensitivity to rising rates, supported by improving profitability and undervalued shares....