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Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The BOK maintained 2.5% rates as the consensus expected. Upward inflation revisions to 2.1% (2025) and 2.1% (2026) signal stronger price persistence than previously forecast, increasing rate-cut caution.</li><li>Policy remains data-dependent with the "possibility" of cuts only after material disinflationary evidence emerges. Financial stability risks around housing and household debt levels now drive policy constraints more than growth concerns.</li><li>Exchange rate depreciation and sticky service inflation create headwinds against achieving the 2% target, likely keeping rates elevated through early 2026 despite modest growth recovery expectations of 1.8%.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The BOK maintained 2.5% rates as the consensus expected. Upward inflation revisions to 2.1% (2025) and 2.1% (2026) signal stronger price persistence than previously forecast, increasing rate-cut caution.Policy remains data-dependent with the "possibility" of cuts only after material disinflationary evidence emerges. Financial stability risks around housing and household debt levels now drive policy constraints more than growth concerns.Exchange rate depreciation and sticky service inflation create headwinds against achieving the 2% target, likely keeping rates elevated through early 2026 despite modest growth recovery expectations of 1.8%.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

BOK: Rate Cut Hopes Damped by Stickier Inflation

<ul><li>The RBNZ surprised some economists by lowering the OCR 25bps to 2.25%, prioritising support for a hesitant economic recovery.</li><li>The policy outlook will hinge on real-time inflation, labour, and external data, with macro risks remaining broadly balanced.</li><li>Cautious, flexible monetary policy is expected, with future interest rate moves highly data-dependent and state-contingent.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The RBNZ surprised some economists by lowering the OCR 25bps to 2.25%, prioritising support for a hesitant economic recovery.The policy outlook will hinge on real-time inflation, labour, and external data, with macro risks remaining broadly balanced.Cautious, flexible monetary policy is expected, with future interest rate moves highly data-dependent and state-contingent.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

RBNZ Eases While Eyeing Medium-Term Inflation

<ul><li>Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts at 4.75%, shifting focus from growth to rupiah stability. This outcome was no surprise to the consensus as external risks intensified.​</li><li>Further easing depends on rupiah stabilisation, not inflation alone. Elevated term premia and expanded FX operations reflect caution.​</li><li>Macroprudential incentives and FX measures aim to support growth while monitoring weak credit transmission after previous rate cuts.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts at 4.75%, shifting focus from growth to rupiah stability. This outcome was no surprise to the consensus as external risks intensified.​Further easing depends on rupiah stabilisation, not inflation alone. Elevated term premia and expanded FX operations reflect caution.​Macroprudential incentives and FX measures aim to support growth while monitoring weak credit transmission after previous rate cuts.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Indonesia Holds Rates as External Headwinds Intensify

<ul><li> Bank Negara maintained the OPR at 2.75% in November 2025, aligned with forecasts, reflecting confidence in steady 5.2% Q3 growth and contained inflation.​</li><li>The decision contrasts with regional easing trends; the central bank views the current stance as appropriate amid resilient domestic demand and easing tariff uncertainties.​</li><li>Forward guidance indicates rates are likely to be stable through mid-2026, contingent on global trade developments, inflation trends, and US rate shifts.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

 Bank Negara maintained the OPR at 2.75% in November 2025, aligned with forecasts, reflecting confidence in steady 5.2% Q3 growth and contained inflation.​The decision contrasts with regional easing trends; the central bank views the current stance as appropriate amid resilient domestic demand and easing tariff uncertainties.​Forward guidance indicates rates are likely to be stable through mid-2026, contingent on global trade developments, inflation trends, and US rate shifts.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>The Norges Bank held rates at 4% as expected. Core inflation at 3% constrains further cuts despite emerging economic slack in the coming year.</li><li>Governor Bache stressed the bank is "not in a hurry" to cut rates, projecting one reduction annually through 2028. Cuts depend on disinflation progressing as forecast.</li><li>December's new forecasts will be critical—faster disinflation or sharper labour market weakness could accelerate cuts, while persistent inflation could keep rates higher for longer.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The Norges Bank held rates at 4% as expected. Core inflation at 3% constrains further cuts despite emerging economic slack in the coming year.Governor Bache stressed the bank is "not in a hurry" to cut rates, projecting one reduction annually through 2028. Cuts depend on disinflation progressing as forecast.December's new forecasts will be critical—faster disinflation or sharper labour market weakness could accelerate cuts, while persistent inflation could keep rates higher for longer.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Inflation Persistence Constrains Norges Bank