Crypto Fundamental Investor/Analyst

Josh Du

Crypto

Virtual currencies are decentralized, math-based digital assets in which transactions can be performed cryptographically without the need for a central issuing authority. The first specification and proof of concept of Bitcoin, the first widely used virtual currency, was published in 2009 based on a paper published pseudonymously by Satoshi Nakamoto.

<ul>
<li>Crypto and equity correlations are at all-time highs this year as both are negatively impacted by global headwinds like rate hikes. However, correlations decoupled over the past two weeks</li>
<li>Equities were in the positives while crypto prices continued to decline due to idiosyncratic factors such as the continued impact from Luna and the execution risks of ETH 2.0 merger</li>
<li>However, public crypto valuation is now overly depressed and the worst may be over with the Luna impact while the ETH 2.0 execution risk will be derisked imminently </li>
</ul>


Crypto and equity correlations are at all-time highs this year as both are negatively impacted by global headwinds like rate hikes. However, correlations decoupled over the past two weeks
Equities were in the positives while crypto prices continued to decline due to idiosyncratic factors such as the continued impact from Luna and the execution risks of ETH 2.0 merger
However, public crypto valuation is now overly depressed and the worst may be over with the Luna impact while the ETH 2.0 execution risk will be derisked imminently 


Crypto Biweekly - Breakdown In Correlation Between Crypto and Equity as Market Wait for ETH 2.0

<ul>
<li>The collapse of UST/LUNA wiped out nearly USD50bn of market capitalization last week due to a poorly structured stable-coin design and threw the crypto markets into chaos</li>
<li>A potentially bigger risk looms on the horizon as USDT's collateral is questioned as market test its ability to meet redemption requests</li>
<li>USDT is a USD70bn stablecoin, 5x as large as UST, and underpins the entire crypto infrastructure. This is the critical space to watch for the future of crypto. </li>
</ul>


The collapse of UST/LUNA wiped out nearly USD50bn of market capitalization last week due to a poorly structured stable-coin design and threw the crypto markets into chaos
A potentially bigger risk looms on the horizon as USDT's collateral is questioned as market test its ability to meet redemption requests
USDT is a USD70bn stablecoin, 5x as large as UST, and underpins the entire crypto infrastructure. This is the critical space to watch for the future of crypto. 


Crypto Biweekly - After UST, Is USDT Next to Fall?

<ul>
<li>Crypto complex down double digits over the past week as yields climb beyond 3% and major asset classes all trade lower with heightened correlation. NFTs also down significantly. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terrausd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35209:1" rel="noopener">TerraUSD (UST CURNCY)</a> has depegged from USD1 and is again potentially at risk for the dreaded death spiral coupled with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terra" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34616:1" rel="noopener">Terra (LUNA CURNCY)</a> </li>
<li>As UST and LUNA have a combined market cap of around $40 billion, it could present systematic risk implications for crypto </li>
</ul>


Crypto complex down double digits over the past week as yields climb beyond 3% and major asset classes all trade lower with heightened correlation. NFTs also down significantly. 

TerraUSD (UST CURNCY) has depegged from USD1 and is again potentially at risk for the dreaded death spiral coupled with Terra (LUNA CURNCY) 
As UST and LUNA have a combined market cap of around $40 billion, it could present systematic risk implications for crypto 


Crypto Weekly - TerraUSD (UST)'s Depeg Leading to Crypto Capitulation?

<ul>
<li>Crypto complex rose mid-week but ended the week down after Powell confirmed market's expectation of 50bps hike in May </li>
<li>Uncorrelated to the rest of market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apecoin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35876:1" rel="noopener">ApeCoin (APE CURNCY)</a>  continues to grind higher in anticipation of Yugalab's Land mint event on April 30th, possibly the largest NFT mint in history </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a> launched a beta version of its NFT marketplace as direct competition to the $13bn dollar Opensea; and much more</li>
</ul>


Crypto complex rose mid-week but ended the week down after Powell confirmed market's expectation of 50bps hike in May 
Uncorrelated to the rest of market, ApeCoin (APE CURNCY)  continues to grind higher in anticipation of Yugalab's Land mint event on April 30th, possibly the largest NFT mint in history 

Coinbase (COIN US) launched a beta version of its NFT marketplace as direct competition to the $13bn dollar Opensea; and much more


Crypto Weekly: The Fed, ApeCoin, Coinbase and More

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apecoin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35876:1" rel="noopener">ApeCoin (APE CURNCY)</a> the $4.5bn market cap token is up over 30% this week while the market continues to trade sideways </li>
<li>The main upcoming catalyst is the Yugalabs metaverse land mint event that is expected to be on April 23rd, the 1 year anniversary of Yugalabs. </li>
<li>Yugalabs is the team behind Bored Ape Yacht Club, and is at the forefront of NFT development. So the market is eagerly awaiting the land mint</li>
</ul>



ApeCoin (APE CURNCY) the $4.5bn market cap token is up over 30% this week while the market continues to trade sideways 
The main upcoming catalyst is the Yugalabs metaverse land mint event that is expected to be on April 23rd, the 1 year anniversary of Yugalabs. 
Yugalabs is the team behind Bored Ape Yacht Club, and is at the forefront of NFT development. So the market is eagerly awaiting the land mint


ApeCoin: Catalyst Coming for Most Important Token in the Metaverse

I've been an investor all my career with experiences across multiple asset classes, worked at shops like Horizon (PM), Ninemasts (PM), Kelusa (Analyst), Morgan Stanley (Research), Deutsche Bank (Special Sits)

Currently, my focus is 100% directed at identifying, investing in, and sharing investment ideas in the crypto asset class as I believe this will the fastest growing space for years to come. 

Although I'm a major believer in the macro thesis of crypto, my research will be bottomsup focused and will breakdown crypto investments into their fundamental components that investors with institutional experiences will be familiar with.