Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Equity Bottom-Up

Gensol Engineering Limited provides renewable energy project development services. The Company constructs solar plants. Gensol Engineering serves customers in India.

<ul>
<li>AI-Powered strategy that shorts high-risk US companies and longs the S&amp;P 500 outperformed the index by 2.5x since July 2021.</li>
<li>Short position targets identified by the Transparently Risk Engine, a tool that assesses listed companies' accounting quality.</li>
<li>Strategy provided better Sharpe ratio, lower maximum drawdown, and negative beta, offering risk-adjusted gains and potential hedge benefits.</li>
</ul>


AI-Powered strategy that shorts high-risk US companies and longs the S&amp;P 500 outperformed the index by 2.5x since July 2021.
Short position targets identified by the Transparently Risk Engine, a tool that assesses listed companies' accounting quality.
Strategy provided better Sharpe ratio, lower maximum drawdown, and negative beta, offering risk-adjusted gains and potential hedge benefits.


Our AI-Powered Accounting Risk Trading Strategy Beat the S&P 500 by 2.5x

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Indian regulator barred Gensol Engineering's founders for alleged fund diversion, causing a 90% stock plunge</li>
<li>Unusual growth and poor governance were flagged in Gensol's accounts by Transparently's AI system</li>
<li>Transparently's "F" risk rating would have likely steered investors away from Gensol.</li>
</ul>


Indian regulator barred Gensol Engineering's founders for alleged fund diversion, causing a 90% stock plunge
Unusual growth and poor governance were flagged in Gensol's accounts by Transparently's AI system
Transparently's "F" risk rating would have likely steered investors away from Gensol.


Gensol Engineering Scandal: Our AI System Saw This Coming

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. </li>
<li>Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.</li>
<li>Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.</li>
</ul>


Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. 
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.


Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Satyam Computer Services / Forensic Accounting

Satyam Computer Services Limited is a global consulting and IT services company, offering a wide array of solutions, from strategy consulting right through to implementing IT solutions for customers. Satyam offers a range of expertise aimed at helping customers re-engineer and re-invent their businesses to compete successfully in an ever-changing marketplace.

<ul>
<li>Satyam's chairman and founder confessed in January 2009 to misappropriating about $1.5 billion of company funds</li>
<li>Scandal shook confidence in Indian corporate governance and the country's IT services industry</li>
<li>Transparently.ai's AI tools detected accounting red flags in Satyam as early as 1998</li>
</ul>


Satyam's chairman and founder confessed in January 2009 to misappropriating about $1.5 billion of company funds
Scandal shook confidence in Indian corporate governance and the country's IT services industry
Transparently.ai's AI tools detected accounting red flags in Satyam as early as 1998


The Satyam Scandal: Inside India’s Enron

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

<ul>
<li>Learn about India’s worst accounting fraud, including Yes Bank, Satyam Computer, Kingfisher and others in this report.</li>
<li>Misappropriation features prominently in these scandals, in addition to fraudulent reporting and corporate governance failure.</li>
<li>Siphoning of funds from bank loans, in particular, has been a common feature of Indian corporate malfeasance.</li>
</ul>


Learn about India’s worst accounting fraud, including Yes Bank, Satyam Computer, Kingfisher and others in this report.
Misappropriation features prominently in these scandals, in addition to fraudulent reporting and corporate governance failure.
Siphoning of funds from bank loans, in particular, has been a common feature of Indian corporate malfeasance.


Mark Jolley has been an investment strategist for almost 40 years. In that time he has advised some of the world’s biggest investment funds, public companies and notable investors.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s Mark managed the consulting firm Syntec Economics, which advised the world’s largest mining and commodity trading companies on interest rates, exchange rates and commodity price trends. 

In the newly deregulated environment of the 1980s, he was among the first analysts to identify key linkages across markets under the floating exchange rates, such as between US and global bond yields, and between the US dollar and global equity and commodity markets. 

He was a vocal bear on Japan’s economy in the late 1980s and one of the few to call the Japanese market peak in 1990 and subsequent recession. He warned of a collapse in the pound ahead of the ERM crisis of 1992.

In the mid-1990s, Mark became a global investment strategist with Deutsche Bank. For almost a decade, he produced perhaps the most influential daily investment notes in global financial markets with a regular readership exceeding 16,000 investment professionals including, at one point, all voting members of the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England.

Mark increasingly turned his focus to Asia in the early 2000’s, moving to Hong Kong in 2004 as the Asian Strategist for Deutsche Bank and then as Strategist for China Construction Bank. At the peak of the emerging market mania in late 2007 he was the only strategist with a bearish call on Asian markets.

Originally from Tasmania, Mark now calls the Philippine island of Siargao his home.