House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Technical Analysis

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

<ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.</li><li>The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.</li><li>On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?</li></ul>

The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?

<ul><li>June: another painful month. The first half of June has been very tough. When markets understood that a 75 bps rate hikes was coming, they quickly reacted and the result has been a new sell-off.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 officially entered into bear market.</li><li>At the beginning, the 10-year Treasury Yield rose at a level close to 3.5%, but then it quickly went down:</li></ul>

June: another painful month. The first half of June has been very tough. When markets understood that a 75 bps rate hikes was coming, they quickly reacted and the result has been a new sell-off.The S&amp;P 500 officially entered into bear market.At the beginning, the 10-year Treasury Yield rose at a level close to 3.5%, but then it quickly went down:

<ul>
<li>Above you can see the chart of the S&amp;P 500, and the Fibonacci Retracement of the index. There is a big support at 3,800, where the index already bounced in mid-May.</li>
<li>Apple reacted quite good to January market sell-off, but then the stock surrendered to the bears. From a 180$ high, the share lost almost 25%, and now it is close to a critical support at 135$.</li>
<li>The sentiment look very bad right now, and it is very likely to see a bearish breakout.</li>
</ul>


Above you can see the chart of the S&amp;P 500, and the Fibonacci Retracement of the index. There is a big support at 3,800, where the index already bounced in mid-May.
Apple reacted quite good to January market sell-off, but then the stock surrendered to the bears. From a 180$ high, the share lost almost 25%, and now it is close to a critical support at 135$.
The sentiment look very bad right now, and it is very likely to see a bearish breakout.


Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.</li><li>On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.</li><li>What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.</li></ul>

After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.

Investors fearful of a possible recession

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

<ul><li>Nasdaq index is one of the biggest losers of the year: it is down almost 20% YTD. Now the tech index lies on a very interesting support</li><li>In case the index will go below the support 12,000 could be the next interesting level. In any case I see the current price more as a buy area</li><li>After one year of trading in a rectangle, finally Amazon made a breakout, but to the downside (after disappointing earnings and guidance). Not a great signal, and the stock will probably suffer for a while</li></ul>

Nasdaq index is one of the biggest losers of the year: it is down almost 20% YTD. Now the tech index lies on a very interesting supportIn case the index will go below the support 12,000 could be the next interesting level. In any case I see the current price more as a buy areaAfter one year of trading in a rectangle, finally Amazon made a breakout, but to the downside (after disappointing earnings and guidance). Not a great signal, and the stock will probably suffer for a while