Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We have another round of Israeli strikes on Iran just as we have seen repeatedly since October 7th and the beginning of the Gaza war.</li><li>This time, Israel targeted nuclear and missile installations as well as the very top of the Iranian military and intelligence leadership. The attacks were hugely successful, likely severely limiting Iranian response capabilities.</li><li>So far, Iran has ‘only’ responded with smaller waves of drones, which the US and UK are helping Israel to shoot down.</li></ul>

We have another round of Israeli strikes on Iran just as we have seen repeatedly since October 7th and the beginning of the Gaza war.This time, Israel targeted nuclear and missile installations as well as the very top of the Iranian military and intelligence leadership. The attacks were hugely successful, likely severely limiting Iranian response capabilities.So far, Iran has ‘only’ responded with smaller waves of drones, which the US and UK are helping Israel to shoot down.

<ul><li>President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that later).</li><li>Trump is now threatening third-party tariffs on countries buying Russian oil – namely China and India, of course.</li><li>To me, this is a sign that Putin is dragging out the negotiations, leveraging the fact that he is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.</li></ul>

President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that later).Trump is now threatening third-party tariffs on countries buying Russian oil – namely China and India, of course.To me, this is a sign that Putin is dragging out the negotiations, leveraging the fact that he is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything geopolitics- and commodities! We are approaching the “Liberation Day” on Apr 2 where we will (hopefully) get more clarity around the tariffs plans from Trump.</li><li>We have recently seen a semi-u-turn from the Trump administration on the severity and depth of the reciprocal tariffs announced next week, and the base-case is a softer stance with some negotiated exemptions for big partners.</li><li>This is also exactly what paves the way for a very decent comeback in US risk assets now, something that we expect to continue into April when the softened USD and slightly lower USD bond yields start feeding through via easier financial conditions.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything geopolitics- and commodities! We are approaching the “Liberation Day” on Apr 2 where we will (hopefully) get more clarity around the tariffs plans from Trump.We have recently seen a semi-u-turn from the Trump administration on the severity and depth of the reciprocal tariffs announced next week, and the base-case is a softer stance with some negotiated exemptions for big partners.This is also exactly what paves the way for a very decent comeback in US risk assets now, something that we expect to continue into April when the softened USD and slightly lower USD bond yields start feeding through via easier financial conditions.

The Drill: Approaching the End of the Tariff and Peace Trades?

<ul><li>Xi’s Tech Summit: China’s Wake-Up Call: On Monday, February 17, Xi Jinping sat down with China’s tech elite in what looked like a serious course correction. Jack Ma (Alibaba) was there. So was Ren Zhengfei (Huawei). But one key figure was missing: Robin Li, Baidu’s CEO. His absence sent Baidu’s stock into a tailspin, wiping out billions in market value before state media scrambled to calm investors down.</li><li>Trump’s Tech Playbook: No More Playing Defense: Beijing is watching what’s happening in Washington—and it doesn’t like what it sees. The Trump administration is moving fast, rolling back regulation, cutting deals with industry giants, and pushing AI, semiconductors, and defense tech like it’s the new space race.</li><li>Baidu’s Stock Crash: A Symbol of China’s Problem: The Baidu selloff shows that investors are still nervous about China’s real stance on tech. It’s one thing to invite Jack Ma back into the room—it’s another to convince the market that Beijing is serious about letting private companies thrive again.</li></ul>

Xi’s Tech Summit: China’s Wake-Up Call: On Monday, February 17, Xi Jinping sat down with China’s tech elite in what looked like a serious course correction. Jack Ma (Alibaba) was there. So was Ren Zhengfei (Huawei). But one key figure was missing: Robin Li, Baidu’s CEO. His absence sent Baidu’s stock into a tailspin, wiping out billions in market value before state media scrambled to calm investors down.Trump’s Tech Playbook: No More Playing Defense: Beijing is watching what’s happening in Washington—and it doesn’t like what it sees. The Trump administration is moving fast, rolling back regulation, cutting deals with industry giants, and pushing AI, semiconductors, and defense tech like it’s the new space race.Baidu’s Stock Crash: A Symbol of China’s Problem: The Baidu selloff shows that investors are still nervous about China’s real stance on tech. It’s one thing to invite Jack Ma back into the room—it’s another to convince the market that Beijing is serious about letting private companies thrive again.

<ul><li>All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.</li><li>For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.</li><li>This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.</li></ul>

All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.

The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?

Geopolitical Analyst based out of Copenhagen, Denmark.

Fields of expertise span European Politics, Global Conflicts, Geopolitical Strategy and Political Economy.