Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Thailand is one of the few economies that will see growth accelerate in 2023. The driving force behind Thailand’s positive cyclical outlook is the tourism recovery. </li>
<li>Other factors also support growth, such as ramped up public investment and a surge in FDI approvals.</li>
<li>The main downside risks are a prolonged slowdown in China, financial shocks, and geopolitical shocks. However, Thailand is sufficiently resilient to these risks.</li>
</ul>


Thailand is one of the few economies that will see growth accelerate in 2023. The driving force behind Thailand’s positive cyclical outlook is the tourism recovery. 
Other factors also support growth, such as ramped up public investment and a surge in FDI approvals.
The main downside risks are a prolonged slowdown in China, financial shocks, and geopolitical shocks. However, Thailand is sufficiently resilient to these risks.


Thailand Visit Note: Politics Will Determine the Growth Potential of the Economy

<ul>
<li>Thailand’s growth momentum stalled in Sep 22 amid declines in the agriculture sector, and headwinds from external demand, culminating in a moderation in consumption and investment growth.</li>
<li>But, stronger-than-expected tourism remains the economy's saving grace, as a more aggressive marketing effort starts to pay dividend.</li>
<li>We hew to our 2022 growth forecast of 3.5% as slower export growth will be offset by vibrant tourism revenues.</li>
</ul>


Thailand’s growth momentum stalled in Sep 22 amid declines in the agriculture sector, and headwinds from external demand, culminating in a moderation in consumption and investment growth.
But, stronger-than-expected tourism remains the economy's saving grace, as a more aggressive marketing effort starts to pay dividend.
We hew to our 2022 growth forecast of 3.5% as slower export growth will be offset by vibrant tourism revenues.


Thailand: Downshift In Growth Momentum In Sep 22

<ul>
<li>The latest PMI surveys show that stimulus measures are taking effect but are unable to offset the drags from renewed lockdowns, weaker external demand and the deflating real estate sector.</li>
<li>The slowdown has now reached a point where the imbalances in the economy could be crystallised and so precipitate broader challenges to stability.</li>
<li>Financial imbalances are a key source of risk. Much focus has been on default risks in the over-leveraged property sector, but we highlight growing default risks at LGFVs as well.</li>
</ul>


The latest PMI surveys show that stimulus measures are taking effect but are unable to offset the drags from renewed lockdowns, weaker external demand and the deflating real estate sector.
The slowdown has now reached a point where the imbalances in the economy could be crystallised and so precipitate broader challenges to stability.
Financial imbalances are a key source of risk. Much focus has been on default risks in the over-leveraged property sector, but we highlight growing default risks at LGFVs as well.


China: Imbalances In The Economy Rise To The Fore As Growth Slows

<ul>
<li>The latest American technology sanctions on China show that the two powers are engaged in a struggle in which the time of half-hearted measures is over.</li>
<li>China faces a formidable task both in maintaining its current progress in fabrication and chip design, while also reconfiguring manufacturing capacity to remove reliance on external equipment and components.</li>
<li>Non-Aligned countries such as those in Southeast Asia may find their balancing act increasingly hard to maintain. Choosing a side, however, will not be an easy task.</li>
</ul>


The latest American technology sanctions on China show that the two powers are engaged in a struggle in which the time of half-hearted measures is over.
China faces a formidable task both in maintaining its current progress in fabrication and chip design, while also reconfiguring manufacturing capacity to remove reliance on external equipment and components.
Non-Aligned countries such as those in Southeast Asia may find their balancing act increasingly hard to maintain. Choosing a side, however, will not be an easy task.


US-China: New US Chip Ban Will Have Far-Reaching Consequences Beyond Just Chips

<ul>
<li>China may finally be inching towards a turnaround, according to the latest data. </li>
<li>The recent monetary data show that stimulus is finally flowing through to the real economy.</li>
<li>But whether that is sufficient to offset weak demand, real estate sector weakness and zero-Covid measures remains moot.</li>
</ul>


China may finally be inching towards a turnaround, according to the latest data. 
The recent monetary data show that stimulus is finally flowing through to the real economy.
But whether that is sufficient to offset weak demand, real estate sector weakness and zero-Covid measures remains moot.


China: Stimulus Is Flowing Through, But Challenges Abound

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.