Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> drives <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a> stock price, but their growth is still limited in 2023F.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a> acts as a buffer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> end demand during 2023F.</li>
<li>Although it is not yet the time to reverse the downturn in 2023F, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a> is expected to continue its upward trend throughout 2H23F.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) drives King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) stock price, but their growth is still limited in 2023F.

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) acts as a buffer for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) end demand during 2023F.
Although it is not yet the time to reverse the downturn in 2023F, King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT) is expected to continue its upward trend throughout 2H23F.


KYEC (2449.TT): Beneficiary of AI with Contribution of CoWoS Testing

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

<ul>
<li>There is a misconception that "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F."</li>
<li>Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.</li>
<li>Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.</li>
</ul>


There is a misconception that "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project entirely in 2024-25F."
Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in 4Q23F, which is larger than ~25mn and has the lowest ASP.
Our current view remains bearish on smartphone demand for 2H23F.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

<ul>
<li>The upcoming demand is expected to reduce in 4Q23F, with the most obvious decline in 40nm and 8" demand.</li>
<li>Wafer ASP is expected to remain relatively stable until 4Q22F, even though revenue is not anticipated to pick up in 1H24F.</li>
<li>We expect the market to reach its lowest point in the first half of 2024F. The most likely scenario indicates a potential recovery around the third quarter of 2024F.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming demand is expected to reduce in 4Q23F, with the most obvious decline in 40nm and 8" demand.
Wafer ASP is expected to remain relatively stable until 4Q22F, even though revenue is not anticipated to pick up in 1H24F.
We expect the market to reach its lowest point in the first half of 2024F. The most likely scenario indicates a potential recovery around the third quarter of 2024F.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

<ul>
<li>We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC.</li>
<li>Due to the ramping up of production for 3nm, the GM is expected to decrease by 2-3%. However, there is an policy to add up at least 2% for TSMC. </li>
<li>The CoWoS is still being closely watched because of NVDA’s demand, and it will take time to get TSMC ready to satisfy the likely demand for CoWoS.</li>
</ul>


We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC.
Due to the ramping up of production for 3nm, the GM is expected to decrease by 2-3%. However, there is an policy to add up at least 2% for TSMC. 
The CoWoS is still being closely watched because of NVDA’s demand, and it will take time to get TSMC ready to satisfy the likely demand for CoWoS.


TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F

<ul>
<li>MediaTek's revised downward forecast for 650-680nm smartphone delivery in 1Q22 earnings conference, but we think that number could be revised down again by the end of July.</li>
<li>MediaTek announced new WiFi products, Filogic 880 and 380, in COMPUTEX2022 on May 24-27. Besides, MediaTek invests in new opportunities for AI in the US.</li>
<li>The mainland China fights fiercely against COVID-19 and stays at the Zero Policy. </li>
</ul>


MediaTek's revised downward forecast for 650-680nm smartphone delivery in 1Q22 earnings conference, but we think that number could be revised down again by the end of July.
MediaTek announced new WiFi products, Filogic 880 and 380, in COMPUTEX2022 on May 24-27. Besides, MediaTek invests in new opportunities for AI in the US.
The mainland China fights fiercely against COVID-19 and stays at the Zero Policy. 


MediaTek (2454.TT): The Smartphone Demand Could Further Decrease in 2022.

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.

Patrick Liao
Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

KYEC (2449.TT): Beneficiary of AI with Contribution of CoWoS Testing

It is not yet the time to judge, the upturn in 2023F, KYEC is expected to continue its upward trend throughout 2H23F. Nvidia is the driver of...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): Gaining Google TPU V7 Project Entirely Could Be a Misconception

There is a misconception "MediaTek is gaining the Google TPU v7 project in 2024-25F." Transsion Holding is placing a new order with MediaTek in...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Revenue Can Be Downward a Bit in 4Q23F.

The upcoming demand is expected to drop in 4Q23, with the most significant decline in 40nm and 8" demand. We expect the market to reach its lowest...

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT): A Bit Higher Rebound in 4Q23F

We foresee a potentially higher rebound in the near future, resulting in higher growth rate in 2023F for TSMC. The GM is expected to decrease by 2...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): The Smartphone Demand Could Further Decrease in 2022.

MediaTek's revised downward smartphone delivery in 1Q22 earnings conference, but we think it could be revised down again by the end of July.

Patrick Liao