Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> may outsource iPad CPU production to Intel in 2027.</li>
<li>U.S. semiconductor reshoring faces fundamental structural barriers, and Trump is trying to blame this by pushing TSMC to move advanced manufacturing technology to the U.S. </li>
<li>The key variable remains Intel’s 18A execution. However, Intel’s current CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, has not demonstrated an aggressive stance so far.</li>
</ul>



Apple (AAPL US) may outsource iPad CPU production to Intel in 2027.
U.S. semiconductor reshoring faces fundamental structural barriers, and Trump is trying to blame this by pushing TSMC to move advanced manufacturing technology to the U.S. 
The key variable remains Intel’s 18A execution. However, Intel’s current CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, has not demonstrated an aggressive stance so far.


Intel (INTC.US): Apple M-Series in 2027; Intel 18A Is the Key.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Rapidus is currently moving in parallel with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)</a> in targeting the 2nm, and is regarded as Japan’s core force in the advanced-process arena.</li>
<li>Rapidus plans to build a second fab in Hokkaido in FY2027. The facility is scheduled to begin 1.4nm volume production in 2029 to accelerate the catch-up with global leader TSMC.</li>
<li>During its mid-October earnings briefing, TSMC stated that 2nm will enter volume production as scheduled in 4Q this year, and that it will begin 1.4nm mass production in 2028.</li>
</ul>


Rapidus is currently moving in parallel with TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US) in targeting the 2nm, and is regarded as Japan’s core force in the advanced-process arena.
Rapidus plans to build a second fab in Hokkaido in FY2027. The facility is scheduled to begin 1.4nm volume production in 2029 to accelerate the catch-up with global leader TSMC.
During its mid-October earnings briefing, TSMC stated that 2nm will enter volume production as scheduled in 4Q this year, and that it will begin 1.4nm mass production in 2028.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Rapidus Plans to Build a Second Fab to Begin 1.4nm Volume Production in 2029

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s retired Senior Vice President Dr. Wei-Jen Lo has taken a position at Intel.</li>
<li>Trump has been in power for less than a year, and the U.S.’s measures have fully revealed its purpose of confrontation between China and the United States. </li>
<li>TSMC’s Arizona fab profit dropped from NT$4.32 billion in 2Q25 to NT$410 million in 3Q25.</li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)’s retired Senior Vice President Dr. Wei-Jen Lo has taken a position at Intel.
Trump has been in power for less than a year, and the U.S.’s measures have fully revealed its purpose of confrontation between China and the United States. 
TSMC’s Arizona fab profit dropped from NT$4.32 billion in 2Q25 to NT$410 million in 3Q25.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Retired Sr. VP Joins Intel; U.S. Fab Impact; Arizona Earnings Decline.

Silergy Corp designs and manufactures a broad range of high performance analog integrated circuits.  The Company's products include single output step down regulators, dual output regulators, single output step by step regulators, power management ICs, step up LED backlight regulator, AC-DC LED lighting controller, DC input LED lighting drivers, LDO regulators, and protection switch

<ul>
<li>4Q25 seasonal outlook? Silergy expects flat to slightly up QoQ, similar to past years.</li>
<li>Silergy does see consolidation, and given its stronger financials, product breadth, and R&amp;D capabilities, the company remains a top supplier and will continue to gain share.</li>
<li>Will 1H next year be better than 2H this year?Hard to say because of Chinese New Year seasonality.We expect YoY growth, but not strong yet.</li>
</ul>


4Q25 seasonal outlook? Silergy expects flat to slightly up QoQ, similar to past years.
Silergy does see consolidation, and given its stronger financials, product breadth, and R&amp;D capabilities, the company remains a top supplier and will continue to gain share.
Will 1H next year be better than 2H this year?Hard to say because of Chinese New Year seasonality.We expect YoY growth, but not strong yet.


Silergy (6415.TT): 4Q25 Flat or Slightly Upside; Early Gen4 Yields Remain Non-Comparable.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Revenue in 3Q25 was 7.8% higher than in 2Q25, in line with stronger seasonal demand. GM: 22.0% in 3Q25, compared with 20.4% in 2Q25 and 20.5% in 3Q24.</li>
<li>The Company expects: Revenue Flat to up 2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Gross Margin: Between 18% and 20%.</li>
<li>SMIC’s stock price has risen 160.7% year-to-date in 2025, outperforming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> at 44.2% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> at 10.8%.</li>
</ul>


Revenue in 3Q25 was 7.8% higher than in 2Q25, in line with stronger seasonal demand. GM: 22.0% in 3Q25, compared with 20.4% in 2Q25 and 20.5% in 3Q24.
The Company expects: Revenue Flat to up 2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Gross Margin: Between 18% and 20%.
SMIC’s stock price has risen 160.7% year-to-date in 2025, outperforming Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) at 44.2% and United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) at 10.8%.


SMIC (981.HK): Although GM May Decline Slightly, Revenue Is Expected to Continue Growing in 4Q25.

Being invited, I joined Sellside, i.e. JPMorgan, Nomura and Macquarie, totally around 9-10 years. Before that, I joined International Data Corp (https://www.idc.com/) to be the Asia Semiconductor analyst for nearly 2 years, and being invited to do personal lectures in TSMC, UMC, Samsung and etc. In my working experiences, I also had the chance to join Taiwanese panel company, AUO (2409.TT) and the buyside, Chinalife (2823.TT), totally for over 1 year.
I obtained MS degree from the Tsing-Hua University. Then I worked in the Taiwan Semiconductor companies for around 11 years. I had several US patents during my stay in the Semiconductor industry.

Being worked in the sellside and buyside, I deeply dived in the Greater China Semiconductor industry and directly covered some companies, like TSMC (2330.TT, TSM.US), UMC (2303.TT, UMC.US), Vanguard (5347.TT), ASE (3711.TT, ASX.US), SPIL (merged with ASE and delisted), KYEC ( 2449.TT), JCET (600584.CH), ASMPT (522.HK), GWC (6488.TT), WinSemi (3105.TT), Mediatek (2454.TT), Silergy (6415.TT), Novatek (3034.TT), Guoxin Micro (002049.CH) etc.