Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Adani Enterprises Limited is an international trading house that operates from offices in India as well as other countries. The Company is involved in coal mining, cargo handling and power generation.  Adani also trades in a large number of products including textiles, energy, metals and agricultural products.

<ul>
<li>NMIAL commissioning in Dec-25 shifts AEL from trading volatility to regulated airport earnings, supporting a structural rerating through FY27.</li>
<li>EBITDA mix moves toward airports and renewables (&gt;70%); IRM shrinks to a residual contributor.</li>
<li>Fair value ₹2,750–3,000 (execution ₹3,300+), driven by utilisation, non-aero monetisation, and capital-structure transparency.</li>
</ul>


NMIAL commissioning in Dec-25 shifts AEL from trading volatility to regulated airport earnings, supporting a structural rerating through FY27.
EBITDA mix moves toward airports and renewables (&gt;70%); IRM shrinks to a residual contributor.
Fair value ₹2,750–3,000 (execution ₹3,300+), driven by utilisation, non-aero monetisation, and capital-structure transparency.


Adani Enterprises: NMIAL Commissioning Triggers Structural Rerating; Airports Drive Duration

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SHANTI eliminates the liability and monopoly barriers—SDR-indexed operator caps, a sovereign-backed compensation waterfall, AERB independence, and APTEL appellate review convert nuclear into a bankable asset class.</li>
<li>India shifts from ~8 GW to a 100-GW build mandate, implying ~90 GW of new capacity and ~$550–750 billion of capex, with SMRs and brownfield coal conversions driving first-wave execution.</li>
<li>Ancing viability hinges on non-recourse leverage (70:30/80:20), long-tenor PPAs/CfDs, ECA underwriting, and fuel security—especially uranium diversification and HALEU access for SMRs</li>
</ul>


SHANTI eliminates the liability and monopoly barriers—SDR-indexed operator caps, a sovereign-backed compensation waterfall, AERB independence, and APTEL appellate review convert nuclear into a bankable asset class.
India shifts from ~8 GW to a 100-GW build mandate, implying ~90 GW of new capacity and ~$550–750 billion of capex, with SMRs and brownfield coal conversions driving first-wave execution.
Ancing viability hinges on non-recourse leverage (70:30/80:20), long-tenor PPAs/CfDs, ECA underwriting, and fuel security—especially uranium diversification and HALEU access for SMRs


INDIA NUCLEAR — SHANTI BILL 2025: From Liability Paralysis to a $550–750bn Private-Build Pipeline

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Equity Bottom-Up

Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. explores, develops, and markets petroleum products such as crude oil and natural gas.

<ul>
<li>JAPEX buys Verdad for USD 1.3bn, gaining operated DJ Basin oil exposure and shifting away from LNG-style earnings.</li>
<li>FY27 operating profit uplift is ~¥14–20bn depending on WTI vs ¥35bn FY26 base.</li>
<li>Strong balance sheet and +11–12% stock reaction support a valuation re-rating toward 3.5–4.0× EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


JAPEX buys Verdad for USD 1.3bn, gaining operated DJ Basin oil exposure and shifting away from LNG-style earnings.
FY27 operating profit uplift is ~¥14–20bn depending on WTI vs ¥35bn FY26 base.
Strong balance sheet and +11–12% stock reaction support a valuation re-rating toward 3.5–4.0× EBITDA.


JAPEX (1662 JP): U.S. Tight-Oil Pivot Drives Earnings Reset and Re-Rating Potential

Raksul, Inc. provides Internet based services. The Company mainly offers net printing, net transportation, and other services. Raksul provides services in Japan.

<ul>
<li>Goldman Sachs will take Raksul private via a ~¥100bn MBO, restoring meaningful governance influence to the founder—one of the most explicitly founder-aligned take-privates in Japan’s tech sector.</li>
<li>Public markets consistently undervalued Raksul’s multi-vertical SME platform; going private enables longer-horizon investment, selective M&amp;A, and disciplined scaling across printing, logistics, marketing tech, and adjacent digital services.</li>
<li>Deal completion probability is high (90–95%): a fair premium, full founder support, and limited interloper risk leave minority shareholders best served by tendering into the offer.</li>
</ul>


Goldman Sachs will take Raksul private via a ~¥100bn MBO, restoring meaningful governance influence to the founder—one of the most explicitly founder-aligned take-privates in Japan’s tech sector.
Public markets consistently undervalued Raksul’s multi-vertical SME platform; going private enables longer-horizon investment, selective M&amp;A, and disciplined scaling across printing, logistics, marketing tech, and adjacent digital services.
Deal completion probability is high (90–95%): a fair premium, full founder support, and limited interloper risk leave minority shareholders best served by tendering into the offer.


Raksul (4384 JP): Goldman-Backed Founder MBO Highlights Japan’s New Tech Take-Private Cycle

TAIHEIYO CEMENT CORPORATION manufactures cement and industrial materials such as limestone.  The Company also operates real estate, waste management (zero emission promotion), and transportation businesses. Taiheiyo Cement operates in Japan, China, and the United States.

<ul>
<li>Taiheiyo Cement’s California platform is vertically integrated and permit-constrained, yet valued at a Japanese consolidated multiple.</li>
<li>Activist engagement targets U.S. asset re-rating, capital allocation discipline, and potential monetisation.</li>
<li>Base case values shares at ¥4,800; activist outcome implies ¥7,200 driven by U.S. multiple normalisation.</li>
</ul>


Taiheiyo Cement’s California platform is vertically integrated and permit-constrained, yet valued at a Japanese consolidated multiple.
Activist engagement targets U.S. asset re-rating, capital allocation discipline, and potential monetisation.
Base case values shares at ¥4,800; activist outcome implies ¥7,200 driven by U.S. multiple normalisation.


Taiheiyo Cement (5233 JP): U.S. Scarcity Assets Drive Activist Re-Rating Potential

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.