Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul>
<li>Chinese copper inventories have dropped to 15-year seasonal lows, with SHFE stockpiles plunging 60% in April — the sharpest decline on record.</li>
<li>This signals intense physical market tightness, driven by strong demand and smelter cutbacks.</li>
<li>The trend is reinforcing bullish sentiment, tightening global balances, and spurring strategic moves across the copper supply chain.</li>
</ul>


Chinese copper inventories have dropped to 15-year seasonal lows, with SHFE stockpiles plunging 60% in April — the sharpest decline on record.
This signals intense physical market tightness, driven by strong demand and smelter cutbacks.
The trend is reinforcing bullish sentiment, tightening global balances, and spurring strategic moves across the copper supply chain.


Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

<ul>
<li>SHI officially terminated $3.54B worth of Russian contracts on June 18, citing prolonged non-performance by Zvezda.</li>
<li>The company is pursuing arbitration in Singapore, aiming to retain $800M in advances and seek additional damages. Most such cases have favoured shipbuilders.</li>
<li>With no production initiated and a strong $28–30B backlog, the impact on operations and FY25 guidance is expected to be minimal.</li>
</ul>


SHI officially terminated $3.54B worth of Russian contracts on June 18, citing prolonged non-performance by Zvezda.
The company is pursuing arbitration in Singapore, aiming to retain $800M in advances and seek additional damages. Most such cases have favoured shipbuilders.
With no production initiated and a strong $28–30B backlog, the impact on operations and FY25 guidance is expected to be minimal.


Samsung Heavy (010140) Ends $3.5B Zvezda Deal; Arbitration On, Order Book Unaffected

Nippon Steel Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

<ul>
<li>Nippon Steel has acquired U.S. Steel for $14.2 billion in cash, adding 23 Mt of crude steel capacity and a full U.S. and EU footprint.</li>
<li>The acquisition marks a bold step toward NS’s “100 MT Vision,” diversifying earnings beyond Japan and strengthening presence in a geopolitically stable market.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel remains heavily BF–based and tied to a structurally flat demand market; long-term steel consumption in the U.S. has declined, making returns dependent on aggressive modernization &amp; macro tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


Nippon Steel has acquired U.S. Steel for $14.2 billion in cash, adding 23 Mt of crude steel capacity and a full U.S. and EU footprint.
The acquisition marks a bold step toward NS’s “100 MT Vision,” diversifying earnings beyond Japan and strengthening presence in a geopolitically stable market.
U.S. Steel remains heavily BF–based and tied to a structurally flat demand market; long-term steel consumption in the U.S. has declined, making returns dependent on aggressive modernization &amp; macro tailwinds.


Nippon Steel (5401) – $14.2B U.S. Steel Bet Targets Growth, Faces U.S. Market Maturity Risks

Centrus Energy Corp. is a global energy company that supplies low enriched uranium ("LEU") for commercial nuclear power plants. The Company, through its subsidiary, operates a uranium enrichment facility in Kentucky, United States.

<ul>
<li>Revenue has scaled meaningfully over the last few years, driven by resurgence in SWU demand and U.S. enrichment contracting.</li>
<li>With exclusive U.S. HALEU production, Centrus is positioned to serve next-gen reactors in a market projected to require tens of tons annually by 2030.</li>
<li>While the stock has rerated sharply, valuation remains reasonable given its strategic role, early mover status, and long-duration growth runway.</li>
</ul>


Revenue has scaled meaningfully over the last few years, driven by resurgence in SWU demand and U.S. enrichment contracting.
With exclusive U.S. HALEU production, Centrus is positioned to serve next-gen reactors in a market projected to require tens of tons annually by 2030.
While the stock has rerated sharply, valuation remains reasonable given its strategic role, early mover status, and long-duration growth runway.


Centrus Energy (LEU): Rebuilding America’s Enrichment Capability with HALEU Tailwinds

Cameco Corporation explores, develops, mines, refines, converts, and fabricates uranium. The Company offers uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors. Cameco operates worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Cameco’s earnings have rebounded strongly with operating leverage from higher uranium prices and conversion margins.</li>
<li>The company is scaling its uranium volumes, upgrading fuel assets, and leveraging its 49% stake in Westinghouse to gain downstream exposure to SMRs and nuclear services.</li>
<li>While valuations appear stretched in the near term, Cameco’s integrated nuclear platform offers attractive long-term optionality, albeit with execution and geopolitical risks.</li>
</ul>


Cameco’s earnings have rebounded strongly with operating leverage from higher uranium prices and conversion margins.
The company is scaling its uranium volumes, upgrading fuel assets, and leveraging its 49% stake in Westinghouse to gain downstream exposure to SMRs and nuclear services.
While valuations appear stretched in the near term, Cameco’s integrated nuclear platform offers attractive long-term optionality, albeit with execution and geopolitical risks.


Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Indian Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Rahul Jain
Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

Chinese copper inventories hit 15-year lows, signaling tight market conditions and driving bullish sentiment in the global copper supply chain.

Rahul Jain

Samsung Heavy (010140) Ends $3.5B Zvezda Deal; Arbitration On, Order Book Unaffected

SHI terminates $3.54B Russian contracts due to non-performance, pursues arbitration in Singapore to retain advances and seek damages. Minimal...

Rahul Jain

Nippon Steel (5401) – $14.2B U.S. Steel Bet Targets Growth, Faces U.S. Market Maturity Risks

Nippon Steel acquires U.S. Steel for $14.2 billion, expanding global footprint and diversifying earnings beyond Japan. Challenges ahead with U.S....

Rahul Jain

Centrus Energy (LEU): Rebuilding America’s Enrichment Capability with HALEU Tailwinds

Centrus has seen significant revenue growth due to increased demand for SWU and U.S. enrichment contracts, positioning them well for future growth...

Rahul Jain

Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle

Cameco's strong earnings rebound driven by higher uranium prices and strategic growth initiatives, offering long-term potential despite near-term...

Rahul Jain

Copper Crunch Deepens: China’s Inventory Collapse Reshapes Global Market

​Chinese copper inventories hit 15-year lows, signaling tight market conditions and driving bullish sentiment in the global copper supply chain.

Rahul Jain

Samsung Heavy (010140) Ends $3.5B Zvezda Deal; Arbitration On, Order Book Unaffected

​SHI terminates $3.54B Russian contracts due to non-performance, pursues arbitration in Singapore to retain advances and seek damages. Minimal...

Rahul Jain

Nippon Steel (5401) – $14.2B U.S. Steel Bet Targets Growth, Faces U.S. Market Maturity Risks

​Nippon Steel acquires U.S. Steel for $14.2 billion, expanding global footprint and diversifying earnings beyond Japan. Challenges ahead with U.S....

Rahul Jain

Centrus Energy (LEU): Rebuilding America’s Enrichment Capability with HALEU Tailwinds

​Centrus has seen significant revenue growth due to increased demand for SWU and U.S. enrichment contracts, positioning them well for future growth...

Rahul Jain

Cameco (TSX: CCO) – Strong Earnings, Westinghouse Expansion, Long-Term Tailwinds in Nuclear Cycle

​Cameco's strong earnings rebound driven by higher uranium prices and strategic growth initiatives, offering long-term potential despite near-term...

Rahul Jain

Chinese copper inventories hit 15-year lows, signaling tight market conditions and driving bullish sentiment in the global copper supply chain.

SHI terminates $3.54B Russian contracts due to non-performance, pursues arbitration in Singapore to retain advances and seek damages. Minimal...

Nippon Steel acquires U.S. Steel for $14.2 billion, expanding global footprint and diversifying earnings beyond Japan. Challenges ahead with U.S....

Centrus has seen significant revenue growth due to increased demand for SWU and U.S. enrichment contracts, positioning them well for future growth...

Cameco's strong earnings rebound driven by higher uranium prices and strategic growth initiatives, offering long-term potential despite near-term...