Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

<ul>
<li>Copper strength continues, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Arcadium integration, with volumes trending toward the higher end of guidance.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto is gradually shifting its portfolio toward copper and lithium to reduce reliance on iron ore and align with energy transition demand.</li>
<li>FY25 guidance remains intact across key commodities, with improved operating momentum and diversified growth positioning the company for a resilient second half.</li>
</ul>


Copper strength continues, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Arcadium integration, with volumes trending toward the higher end of guidance.
Rio Tinto is gradually shifting its portfolio toward copper and lithium to reduce reliance on iron ore and align with energy transition demand.
FY25 guidance remains intact across key commodities, with improved operating momentum and diversified growth positioning the company for a resilient second half.


Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

Sumitomo Corp is a general trading company.  The Company imports and exports a wide variety of goods such as metals, machinery, chemicals, fuel,food products, and textiles.  Sumitomo also operates real estate, construction, shipping, insurance, finance, and leasing businesses.

<ul>
<li>Sumitomo’s £7.5B (~¥1.46T) UK clean energy investment marks a pivot from trading and resource-linked businesses to long-duration, regulated infrastructure—anchoring its Energy Transformation strategy.</li>
<li>Annual deployment (~¥146B) is ~24% of operating cash flow; funded via SPVs, project finance, and equity partners. Majority of spend is front-weighted through FY2031, earnings back-loaded.</li>
<li>Currently trading at ~5.7x EV/EBITDA, a successful infra scale-up could justify a multiple closer to 6.5–7.0x—in line with peers like Marubeni or Mitsui. ROE uplift is likely beyond FY2028.</li>
</ul>


Sumitomo’s £7.5B (~¥1.46T) UK clean energy investment marks a pivot from trading and resource-linked businesses to long-duration, regulated infrastructure—anchoring its Energy Transformation strategy.
Annual deployment (~¥146B) is ~24% of operating cash flow; funded via SPVs, project finance, and equity partners. Majority of spend is front-weighted through FY2031, earnings back-loaded.
Currently trading at ~5.7x EV/EBITDA, a successful infra scale-up could justify a multiple closer to 6.5–7.0x—in line with peers like Marubeni or Mitsui. ROE uplift is likely beyond FY2028.


Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality

China Molybdenum Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

China Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. operates as a mineral mining and exploration company. The Company explores molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, cobalt, copper, and more. China Molybdenum conducts businesses worldwide.

<ul>
<li>CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.</li>
<li>With H1 tracking &gt;50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.</li>
<li>Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


CMOC’s H1 2025 midpoint guidance signals a ~60% YoY surge in net profit, supported by higher copper and cobalt output and pricing.
With H1 tracking &gt;50% of full-year profit, FY2025 earnings could be revised 10–18% higher from internal estimates, with EPS approaching RMB 0.85.
Despite strong delivery, CMOC trades at ~10x forward earnings and ~4.5x EV/EBITDA; a rerating may depend on easing DRC constraints and sustained price tailwinds.


CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

Zhongjin Gold Corp Ltd acquires, explores and develops properties for gold production. The Company's products also include silver, electrolytic copper and sulphuric acid.

<ul>
<li>Consistent operating and financial performance over the past five years, supported by rising gold prices and disciplined cost control.</li>
<li>Recent H1 FY25 guidance signals over 50% profit growth, backed by expanding output, stable AISC, and targeted capex across key mines and refining assets.</li>
<li>Valuations remain undemanding at &lt;10× FY27E P/E despite high earnings sensitivity to gold prices and improving margins, indicating re-rating potential.</li>
</ul>


Consistent operating and financial performance over the past five years, supported by rising gold prices and disciplined cost control.
Recent H1 FY25 guidance signals over 50% profit growth, backed by expanding output, stable AISC, and targeted capex across key mines and refining assets.
Valuations remain undemanding at &lt;10× FY27E P/E despite high earnings sensitivity to gold prices and improving margins, indicating re-rating potential.


Zhongjin Gold (SHA: 600489): Stable Growth, Strong Upside Potential

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

<ul>
<li>Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.</li>
<li>Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.</li>
<li>The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.</li>
</ul>


Zijin has guided for a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit to RMB 23.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold pricing and volume gains.
Based on this, we see scope to revise our FY2025 PAT and EPS estimates up by 16–19%, and EBITDA by 35–50%.
The proposed listing of Zijin Gold International in Hong Kong could unlock value from its high-margin overseas gold assets and enhance investor visibility.


Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Indian and global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Rahul Jain
Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.

Rahul Jain

Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality

Sumitomo shifts focus to UK clean energy with £7.5B investment, aiming for long-term infrastructure growth and potential ROE uplift beyond FY2028.

Rahul Jain

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

CMOC's strong H1 2025 performance could lead to a significant increase in net profit, with potential for higher earnings and EPS in the full year,...

Rahul Jain

Zhongjin Gold (SHA: 600489): Stable Growth, Strong Upside Potential

Stable financial performance driven by rising gold prices and cost control, with potential for over 50% profit growth and undemanding valuations...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.

Rahul Jain

Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds

​Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.

Rahul Jain

Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality

​Sumitomo shifts focus to UK clean energy with £7.5B investment, aiming for long-term infrastructure growth and potential ROE uplift beyond FY2028.

Rahul Jain

CMOC Group Ltd (SEHK: 3993 | SSE: 603993) – H1 Guidance Points to Strong Upside

​CMOC's strong H1 2025 performance could lead to a significant increase in net profit, with potential for higher earnings and EPS in the full year,...

Rahul Jain

Zhongjin Gold (SHA: 600489): Stable Growth, Strong Upside Potential

​Stable financial performance driven by rising gold prices and cost control, with potential for over 50% profit growth and undemanding valuations...

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining: Strong H1 Guidance, FY25 Upgrades Likely, Gold Listing Adds Catalyst

​Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.

Rahul Jain

Rio Tinto's copper strength and diversification strategy position the company for resilient growth in the second half of FY25.

Sumitomo shifts focus to UK clean energy with £7.5B investment, aiming for long-term infrastructure growth and potential ROE uplift beyond FY2028.

CMOC's strong H1 2025 performance could lead to a significant increase in net profit, with potential for higher earnings and EPS in the full year,...

Stable financial performance driven by rising gold prices and cost control, with potential for over 50% profit growth and undemanding valuations...

Zijin expects a 54% YoY rise in H1 FY2025 net profit, prompting potential revisions to estimates and plans for a Hong Kong listing to unlock value.