Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

Silver is the metallic element with the atomic number 47. Its symbol is Ag, from the Latin argentum, derived from the Greek ὰργὀς (literally "shiny" or "white"), and ultimately from a Proto-Indo-European language root reconstructed as *h₂erǵ-, "grey" or "shining". A soft, white, lustrous transition metal, it exhibits the highest electrical conductivity, thermal conductivity, and reflectivity of any metal. The metal is found in the Earth's crust in the pure, free elemental form ("native silver"), as an alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

<ul>
<li>Silver prices have rallied ~24% over the past 12 months, driven by strong industrial demand (solar, EVs) and renewed investor interest amid inflation concerns.</li>
<li>With a fourth consecutive market deficit and accelerating demand from clean energy applications, the setup points to a multi-year bullish cycle—especially if real rates remain subdued.</li>
<li>This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the silver market’s recent performance, long-term demand-supply dynamics, key producers’ sensitivity to price movements, and valuation-driven investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Silver prices have rallied ~24% over the past 12 months, driven by strong industrial demand (solar, EVs) and renewed investor interest amid inflation concerns.
With a fourth consecutive market deficit and accelerating demand from clean energy applications, the setup points to a multi-year bullish cycle—especially if real rates remain subdued.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the silver market’s recent performance, long-term demand-supply dynamics, key producers’ sensitivity to price movements, and valuation-driven investment opportunities.


Silver Surges to Multi-Year Highs on Industrial and Monetary Tailwinds

Equity Bottom-Up

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

<ul>
<li>The U.S. Department of Defense has committed $550 million to MP Materials through preferred equity, a loan, and offtake guarantees to build a fully domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.</li>
<li>This positions MP as the U.S. government’s strategic partner for critical magnet materials, accelerating its shift from miner to fully integrated magnet producer.</li>
<li>With a 10-year NdPr price floor, guaranteed offtake, and minimum EBITDA protections, MP now has robust downside protection and earnings predictability through 2035.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. Department of Defense has committed $550 million to MP Materials through preferred equity, a loan, and offtake guarantees to build a fully domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.
This positions MP as the U.S. government’s strategic partner for critical magnet materials, accelerating its shift from miner to fully integrated magnet producer.
With a 10-year NdPr price floor, guaranteed offtake, and minimum EBITDA protections, MP now has robust downside protection and earnings predictability through 2035.


MP Materials (NYSE: MP) | Defense-Backed Integration Anchors Strategic Rerating

Adani Power Ltd is a power project development company. The Company develops, operates and maintains power projects in India.

<ul>
<li>Adds 600 MW operational capacity in Maharashtra, acquired via CIRP at ₹6.67 crore/MW.</li>
<li>Supports Adani’s goal to reach 30,670 MW by FY2030 through scale-driven, base-load expansion.</li>
<li>Stock trades at ~12x forward P/E—undervalued given 70% capacity growth and strong operating leverage.</li>
</ul>


Adds 600 MW operational capacity in Maharashtra, acquired via CIRP at ₹6.67 crore/MW.
Supports Adani’s goal to reach 30,670 MW by FY2030 through scale-driven, base-load expansion.
Stock trades at ~12x forward P/E—undervalued given 70% capacity growth and strong operating leverage.


Adani Power Adds 600 MW—One Step Closer to 30 GW

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech / Equity Bottom-Up

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech Co. Ltd. is the consolidation of mining, smelting, separation and utilization companies in the northern region of Inner Mongolia.

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech (600111 CH)

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech

<ul>
<li>China Northern Rare Earth issued a mid-year earnings guidance of ¥900–960 million for H1 FY2025, marking a 1,900%+ YoY increase and reflecting strong volume recovery and operational leverage.</li>
<li>The company is on track to meet our full-year net profit estimate of ¥2.33 billion and EPS of ¥0.65, assuming a seasonally stronger H2.</li>
<li>Key risks include ongoing export restrictions, global supply chain diversification efforts, and downstream demand volatility, while long-term plans remain aligned with China’s rare earth consolidation and value-added material strategy.</li>
</ul>


China Northern Rare Earth issued a mid-year earnings guidance of ¥900–960 million for H1 FY2025, marking a 1,900%+ YoY increase and reflecting strong volume recovery and operational leverage.
The company is on track to meet our full-year net profit estimate of ¥2.33 billion and EPS of ¥0.65, assuming a seasonally stronger H2.
Key risks include ongoing export restrictions, global supply chain diversification efforts, and downstream demand volatility, while long-term plans remain aligned with China’s rare earth consolidation and value-added material strategy.


China Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH): Strong H1 Guidance Supports Full-Year Outlook

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

<ul>
<li>On July 9, 2025, KKR announced it would reduce its stake in Kokusai Electric from ~23.5% to ~10.6% through a ¥90 billion overnight secondary offering.</li>
<li>KKR’s move reflects a classic private equity monetization strategy following operational improvements and a successful IPO.</li>
<li>While the sale caused a modest short-term share reaction (~2% dip), such liquidity events rarely impact long-term value—fundamentals remain the key driver for patient investors.</li>
</ul>


On July 9, 2025, KKR announced it would reduce its stake in Kokusai Electric from ~23.5% to ~10.6% through a ¥90 billion overnight secondary offering.
KKR’s move reflects a classic private equity monetization strategy following operational improvements and a successful IPO.
While the sale caused a modest short-term share reaction (~2% dip), such liquidity events rarely impact long-term value—fundamentals remain the key driver for patient investors.


Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Indian Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Rahul Jain
Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Silver Surges to Multi-Year Highs on Industrial and Monetary Tailwinds

Silver prices have surged due to industrial demand and investor interest, signaling a potential multi-year bullish cycle with opportunities for...

Rahul Jain

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) | Defense-Backed Integration Anchors Strategic Rerating

The U.S. Department of Defense invests $550 million in MP Materials to establish a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, securing strategic...

Rahul Jain

Adani Power Adds 600 MW—One Step Closer to 30 GW

Adani acquires 600 MW capacity in Maharashtra, driving towards goal of 30,670 MW by FY2030, stock undervalued at 12x forward P/E.

Rahul Jain

China Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH): Strong H1 Guidance Supports Full-Year Outlook

China Northern Rare Earth expects a significant increase in earnings for H1 FY2025, driven by volume recovery and operational leverage, with full...

Rahul Jain

Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

KKR reduces stake in Kokusai Electric, showcasing private equity monetization strategy post-IPO success. Short-term share dip unlikely to impact...

Rahul Jain

Silver Surges to Multi-Year Highs on Industrial and Monetary Tailwinds

​Silver prices have surged due to industrial demand and investor interest, signaling a potential multi-year bullish cycle with opportunities for...

Rahul Jain

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) | Defense-Backed Integration Anchors Strategic Rerating

​The U.S. Department of Defense invests $550 million in MP Materials to establish a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, securing strategic...

Rahul Jain

Adani Power Adds 600 MW—One Step Closer to 30 GW

​Adani acquires 600 MW capacity in Maharashtra, driving towards goal of 30,670 MW by FY2030, stock undervalued at 12x forward P/E.

Rahul Jain

China Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH): Strong H1 Guidance Supports Full-Year Outlook

​China Northern Rare Earth expects a significant increase in earnings for H1 FY2025, driven by volume recovery and operational leverage, with full...

Rahul Jain

Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

​KKR reduces stake in Kokusai Electric, showcasing private equity monetization strategy post-IPO success. Short-term share dip unlikely to impact...

Rahul Jain

Silver prices have surged due to industrial demand and investor interest, signaling a potential multi-year bullish cycle with opportunities for...

The U.S. Department of Defense invests $550 million in MP Materials to establish a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, securing strategic...

Adani acquires 600 MW capacity in Maharashtra, driving towards goal of 30,670 MW by FY2030, stock undervalued at 12x forward P/E.

China Northern Rare Earth expects a significant increase in earnings for H1 FY2025, driven by volume recovery and operational leverage, with full...

KKR reduces stake in Kokusai Electric, showcasing private equity monetization strategy post-IPO success. Short-term share dip unlikely to impact...