Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Oriental Watch is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the trading of watches and clocks through an extensive retail network in Greater China. It sells watches from numerous prestigious brands, including Rolex, Tudor, Bulgari, Breitling, and Longines. The company also engages in property holding and securities investment activities. Headquartered in Central, Hong Kong, the company was founded in 1961.

<ul>
<li>This is a part of our series <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/timeless-a-follow-up-on-the-luxury-watch-retailer-space-and-their-impressive-capital-allocation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:267136" rel="noopener">Timeless: A Follow-Up on the Luxury Watch Retailer Space and Their Impressive Capital Allocation</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ticking-different-a-comparison-of-the-world-s-listed-luxury-watch-retailers-with-exposure-to-rolex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:241854" rel="noopener">Ticking Different: A Comparison of the Rolex Watch Retailers </a>
</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-watch-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19950:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Watch (398 HK)</a> to show 10-15% YoY earnings growth in its H1FY27 results, to be declared in November (this is a March-end company). </li>
<li>With a 100% payout, we expect a dividend of 23.5 HKD cents (47 HKD cents annualized, or a 14.6% dividend yield), with 62% of the market cap in net cash. </li>
</ul>


This is a part of our series Timeless: A Follow-Up on the Luxury Watch Retailer Space and Their Impressive Capital Allocation/ Ticking Different: A Comparison of the Rolex Watch Retailers 

We expect Oriental Watch (398 HK) to show 10-15% YoY earnings growth in its H1FY27 results, to be declared in November (this is a March-end company). 
With a 100% payout, we expect a dividend of 23.5 HKD cents (47 HKD cents annualized, or a 14.6% dividend yield), with 62% of the market cap in net cash. 


Oriental Watch (398 HK): Previewing Earnings For H1FY27

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Bottom-Up

OceanaGold Philippines, Inc. is a leading producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, engaged in the exploration, development, and utilization of mineral resources. The company operates the Didipio gold and copper mine in the northern Luzon region, producing gold dore bars (containing gold and silver) and copper concentrate. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya, Philippines.

<ul>
<li>
Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.</li>
<li>
 Performance:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centerra-gold-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25634:1" rel="noopener">Centerra Gold (CG CN)</a>  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barrick-mining-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21023:1" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a>  (‑6.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25396:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold (K CN)</a> (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).</li>
<li>
Picks: We like <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barrick Mining (B US)</a> for upcoming catalysts, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> for its yield of 10-12%, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apex Mining (APX PM)</a> for future growth. </li>
</ul>



Valuation: At $4,500/oz, the nine-name median is 8.3x P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA; excluding Capricorn (18.6x), the sector prices in little of current gold.

 Performance:Centerra Gold (CG CN)  (+56.5%) and Wesdome (+51.8%) lead YTD, while Barrick Mining (B US)  (‑6.2%) and Kinross Gold (K CN) (‑16.4%) lag on the lowest EV/EBITDA (3.9x, 4.2x).

Picks: We like Barrick Mining (B US) for upcoming catalysts, OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) for its yield of 10-12%, and Apex Mining (APX PM) for future growth. 


GOLD MINING SECTOR: Comparative Valuation, Share Price Performance & Gold Price Sensitivity

Plover Bay Technologies / Equity Bottom-Up

Plover Bay Technologies designs, develops, markets, and sells software-defined wide area network (SD-WAN) routers and related products globally under the Peplink and Pepwave brands. The company offers wired and wireless SD-WAN routers, networking peripherals, software licenses, and warranty and support services. It was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Lai Chi Kok, Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>Starlink's planned entry into US mobile carrier service adds another bondable network and should lower the cost of enterprise data plans, expanding the use case for Peplink's SpeedFusion multi-WAN bonding.</li>
<li>We expect 18% YoY growth in FY26, stable inventory, and deeper Starlink back-end integration; the NASDAQ spin-off of the North American business is now expected in 2Q 2027.</li>
<li>Based on FY26e net income of US$56.6m (+24% YoY), 44.0% EBITDA margin; FY25 ROE 78.9%; the stock trades at 19.0x P/E, 15.0x EV/EBITDA, 5.0% yield.</li>
</ul>


Starlink's planned entry into US mobile carrier service adds another bondable network and should lower the cost of enterprise data plans, expanding the use case for Peplink's SpeedFusion multi-WAN bonding.
We expect 18% YoY growth in FY26, stable inventory, and deeper Starlink back-end integration; the NASDAQ spin-off of the North American business is now expected in 2Q 2027.
Based on FY26e net income of US$56.6m (+24% YoY), 44.0% EBITDA margin; FY25 ROE 78.9%; the stock trades at 19.0x P/E, 15.0x EV/EBITDA, 5.0% yield.


Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK): Starlink Mobile Is a Tailwind; Spin-Off Expected in 2027

Vale S.A. is a Brazilian multinational corporation primarily engaged in metals and mining. The company is one of the world's largest producers of iron ore and nickel, also extracting copper, manganese, and ferroalloys, along with operating extensive logistics infrastructure. Vale S.A. was founded on June 1, 1942, and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

<ul>
<li>It is hard to get constructive on iron ore due to poor lending data in China, with August TSF down 38% YoY, negative mill margins, and expectations of increased supply.</li>
<li>We believe, though, that we are now bumping up against the higher end of the cost curve as iron ore prices have drifted down to 90-91 USD/ton. </li>
<li>While we see a small bounce in prices, we find it hard to be positive on equities, as elevated diesel and shipping costs are causing a margin squeeze.</li>
</ul>


It is hard to get constructive on iron ore due to poor lending data in China, with August TSF down 38% YoY, negative mill margins, and expectations of increased supply.
We believe, though, that we are now bumping up against the higher end of the cost curve as iron ore prices have drifted down to 90-91 USD/ton. 
While we see a small bounce in prices, we find it hard to be positive on equities, as elevated diesel and shipping costs are causing a margin squeeze.


Iron Ore Prices: Small Bounce From 90 USD/Ton, Cost Pressures Still Negative For Equities

Amerigo Resources Ltd. produces copper and molybdenum.  The Company operates in South America.

<ul>
<li>Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). </li>
<li>Our recent picks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ero-copper-corp-ero-us-ero-cn-update-q2-fy26-results-cash-inflection-confirmed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:262650" rel="noopener">Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amerigo-resources-arg-cn-copper-factory-tailings-processor-that-sweeps-upside-to-shareholders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:268297" rel="noopener">Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders</a> </li>
<li>We also like bellwethers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta (ANTO LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Copper is now consolidating at 14,500 USD/ton, with continuous restocking on the COMEX, where inventories are now closing in on 800,000 tons (40% of US annual demand). 
Our recent picks Ero Copper Corp. (ERO US / ERO CN) Update: Q2 FY26 Results, Cash Inflection Confirmed /Amerigo Resources (ARG CN): Copper Factory Tailings Processor That Sweeps Upside To Shareholders 
We also like bellwethers like Lundin Mining (LUN CN) / Antofagasta (ANTO LN) and Southern Copper (SCCO US) 


Copper Continuing Consolidation At 14,500 USD/Ton: Our Idea Basket To Play Copper

A buy-side analyst with over 18 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.