Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It is imperative to closely monitor the China economy in the current environment</li>
<li>My China Monthly Alternative Growth (CMAG) gauge provides a timely assessment of the aggregate economy</li>
<li>The CMAG is currently tracking below average in August, all else equal, with early indications of additional sogginess going forward</li>
</ul>


It is imperative to closely monitor the China economy in the current environment
My China Monthly Alternative Growth (CMAG) gauge provides a timely assessment of the aggregate economy
The CMAG is currently tracking below average in August, all else equal, with early indications of additional sogginess going forward


<ul>
<li>The current and expected deterioration of the underlying fiscal trend is troubling</li>
<li>But the empirical and theoretical relationships between fiscal variables and longer-term interest rates are complex</li>
<li>My decomposition of longer-term rates and econometric estimates can potentially add to the available research on this</li>
</ul>


The current and expected deterioration of the underlying fiscal trend is troubling
But the empirical and theoretical relationships between fiscal variables and longer-term interest rates are complex
My decomposition of longer-term rates and econometric estimates can potentially add to the available research on this


<ul>
<li>The July jobs figure, routine revisions to prior months and the abrupt removal of the BLS commissioner made headlines for various reasons</li>
<li>The data from the payroll or establishment survey seems to convey a more dour cyclical signal</li>
<li>But the overall US labor market information from various sources implies more intricate interactions at this time</li>
</ul>


The July jobs figure, routine revisions to prior months and the abrupt removal of the BLS commissioner made headlines for various reasons
The data from the payroll or establishment survey seems to convey a more dour cyclical signal
But the overall US labor market information from various sources implies more intricate interactions at this time


<ul>
<li>It is essential to track and evaluate the global economy amid a multitude of negative and positive shocks at this time</li>
<li>My experimental Diffusion of Growth Indicator (DoGI) offers a timely directional view of the global economy</li>
<li>The signals from the DoGI combined with the breadth of GDP contractions can effectively assess the likelihood of a global recession</li>
</ul>


It is essential to track and evaluate the global economy amid a multitude of negative and positive shocks at this time
My experimental Diffusion of Growth Indicator (DoGI) offers a timely directional view of the global economy
The signals from the DoGI combined with the breadth of GDP contractions can effectively assess the likelihood of a global recession


<ul>
<li>It is important to dissect and monitor the underlying inflation backdrop across the G3 economies for a variety of reasons</li>
<li>My estimate of the more or most persistent component of inflation may be a reasonable proxy of underlying inflation</li>
<li>My current underlying inflation estimates for the Euro Area, Japan and US are hovering around 2.0% to modestly below 3.0%    </li>
</ul>


It is important to dissect and monitor the underlying inflation backdrop across the G3 economies for a variety of reasons
My estimate of the more or most persistent component of inflation may be a reasonable proxy of underlying inflation
My current underlying inflation estimates for the Euro Area, Japan and US are hovering around 2.0% to modestly below 3.0%    


Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.