Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy. He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund. Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia. Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”). During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide. Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloo...

Thomas Lam
Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

The Sky Is Falling!?

As the US equity market convulses and data signals befuddle, I revisit my weekly Recession Odds indicator for near-term clues.

Thomas Lam

The Hubbub Surrounding January CPI Inflation

My analysis suggests that the recent upside surprises in CPI were primarily driven by the least persistent categories of inflation, not the more...

Thomas Lam

The Next Four Years...

Should we ask not what President Trump can do for you, but ask what you can do for him? This piece considers a richer perspective for the next...

Thomas Lam

Another Way to Skin a Cat?

I introduce a new interpolated monthly US real GDP series extending back to 1947, thus offering an alternative nowcast of current economic activity.

Thomas Lam