Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

<ul>
<li>Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.</li>
<li>Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.</li>
<li>Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.</li>
</ul>


Vale cuts 2026 iron ore guidance to 335–345 Mt as China’s weaker demand and rising scrap reduce seaborne needs by about 160 Mt.
Steel decarbonisation accelerates through global EAF expansion, pushing Vale toward a flexible blend of high-grade, mid-grade, and corrective ores to maximise value.
Vale and Glencore’s Sudbury study targets 880 kt copper over 21 years, leveraging shared infrastructure to curb costs and bolster North American supply.


Key Insights From Vale Day 2025: Strategy Recast for a New Metals Cycle

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.</li>
<li>Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore. </li>
<li>Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.</li>
</ul>


Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.
Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore. 
Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.


Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures hit a three-week high as shipments fell by 8.3% WoW, but blast furnace shutdowns signal weak demand and limit further upside.</li>
<li>Managed money participants reduced net long exposure across all futures and options expiries, reflecting a more cautious market stance.</li>
<li>The DCE-SGX spread has retreated from the upper Bollinger band and slipped below the 9-day MA, indicating softening momentum. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures hit a three-week high as shipments fell by 8.3% WoW, but blast furnace shutdowns signal weak demand and limit further upside.
Managed money participants reduced net long exposure across all futures and options expiries, reflecting a more cautious market stance.
The DCE-SGX spread has retreated from the upper Bollinger band and slipped below the 9-day MA, indicating softening momentum. 


Iron Ore Upside Persists, but Easing Fundamentals and Risk Reduction Cap Enthusiasm

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Simandou’s planned 120 Mt annual output could supply about 6% of global seaborne ore by 2030, pressuring Australia and Brazil and shifting premium-grade pricing.</li>
<li>Despite Guinea’s push to diversify buyers, roughly three-quarters of Simandou’s ownership ties back to China, making most tonnage effectively committed to Chinese mills.</li>
<li>Weak Chinese steel margins and a 12% YoY drop in October output limit near-term uptake, but long-term decarbonisation trends support stronger demand for high-grade feedstock.</li>
</ul>


Simandou’s planned 120 Mt annual output could supply about 6% of global seaborne ore by 2030, pressuring Australia and Brazil and shifting premium-grade pricing.
Despite Guinea’s push to diversify buyers, roughly three-quarters of Simandou’s ownership ties back to China, making most tonnage effectively committed to Chinese mills.
Weak Chinese steel margins and a 12% YoY drop in October output limit near-term uptake, but long-term decarbonisation trends support stronger demand for high-grade feedstock.


As Simandou Opens the Floodgates, Rio Tinto Finds a New Edge in the Premium Ore Race

<ul>
<li>Iron ore rebounded as supply tightened, and trade sentiment improved, though weak demand and margin pressure capped gains.</li>
<li>Managed money participants increased their net long positions across all futures and options expiries, signalling renewed confidence in the bullish trend.</li>
<li>The DCE-SGX spread’s climb above key MAs signals firm bullish momentum, though sustained strength remains crucial.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore rebounded as supply tightened, and trade sentiment improved, though weak demand and margin pressure capped gains.
Managed money participants increased their net long positions across all futures and options expiries, signalling renewed confidence in the bullish trend.
The DCE-SGX spread’s climb above key MAs signals firm bullish momentum, though sustained strength remains crucial.


Shipments Tighten, Bears Circle: Iron Ore Navigates Macro and Technical Squeeze

Umang Agrawal holds a Master’s degree in Finance and Investment from the University of Nottingham and a Bachelors in Commerce (Honours) from Shri Ram College of Commerce, University of Delhi. With a strong foundation in financial analysis, he is proficient in utilizing key financial databases and tools.

Currently, he specializes in macroeconomic analysis at Mint Finance, with a primary focus on China and Japan. His work involves in-depth research on economic trends, policy impact, and sector-specific developments within these key Asian economies. Additionally, he possesses a keen understanding of the iron ore market, analyzing supply-demand dynamics, trade flows, and pricing trends to identify strategic investment opportunities.