Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>PM Anwar's effective abandonment of the multi-racial agenda he advocated during his quarter-century in Opposition has led to large net outflows of FPI and FDI, especially in Q1CY24. </li>
<li>The trend weakening of the BoP current account was temporarily reprieved in Q1 by a sharp decline in the incomes deficit. Medium-term challenges still pressure MYR, as FX reserves stagnate.</li>
<li>Cyclical recovery likely to peter out, with structural fiscal deficit at 5.5% of GDP, and scant scope for monetary stimulus. We recommend being Underweight Malaysia, with Penang-linked stocks the exception. </li>
</ul>


PM Anwar's effective abandonment of the multi-racial agenda he advocated during his quarter-century in Opposition has led to large net outflows of FPI and FDI, especially in Q1CY24. 
The trend weakening of the BoP current account was temporarily reprieved in Q1 by a sharp decline in the incomes deficit. Medium-term challenges still pressure MYR, as FX reserves stagnate.
Cyclical recovery likely to peter out, with structural fiscal deficit at 5.5% of GDP, and scant scope for monetary stimulus. We recommend being Underweight Malaysia, with Penang-linked stocks the exception. 


Malaysia: Net Outflow of FDI and FPI Reflect Basic Haemorrhage of Trust

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week we look at Shopee and Lazada as they are investigated for anti-competitive behaviour around logistics, Grab's OpenAI collaboration, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nusantara-sejahtera-raya-pt-cinema-xxi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39908:1" rel="noopener">Cinema XXI (CNMA IJ)</a> as GIC looks to exit. </li>
<li>We also look at the increasing focus by governments around Southeast Asia on cheap imports from China, as Thailand joins the through imposing VAT on low-value products previously exempt.</li>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


This week we look at Shopee and Lazada as they are investigated for anti-competitive behaviour around logistics, Grab's OpenAI collaboration, and Cinema XXI (CNMA IJ) as GIC looks to exit. 
We also look at the increasing focus by governments around Southeast Asia on cheap imports from China, as Thailand joins the through imposing VAT on low-value products previously exempt.
CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.


CrossASEAN Ground Zero - Shopee Express in the CrossHairs, Grab & OpenAI, Cinema XXI, Thai Tariffs

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

Equity Bottom-Up

Xinyi Glass Holdings Ltd, through its subsidiaries, produces a variety of processed glass products for automobile, construction and household applications. The Company also tenders for glass curtain wall projects and conducts installation service of glass curtain wall in China.

<ul>
<li>The majority of its revenue comes from selling float glass, which is used in buildings and construction. </li>
<li>The Chinese government has started home ownership relaxation that will reinvigorate the real estate market. </li>
<li>It is still trading at 67% lower to 3 years ago. </li>
</ul>


The majority of its revenue comes from selling float glass, which is used in buildings and construction. 
The Chinese government has started home ownership relaxation that will reinvigorate the real estate market. 
It is still trading at 67% lower to 3 years ago. 


Xinyi Glass (868): Beneficiary of Chinese RE Rejuvenation

Ace Hardware Indonesia / Equity Bottom-Up

PT ACE Hardware Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a> continues to impress both in terms of SSSG and profitability, with numerous initiatives to drive future growth including more regular promotional campaigns and upgraded formats.</li>
<li>SSSG for 5M2024 is well ahead of full-year guidance with strong growth momentum driven by ongoing campaigns, brighter new concept formats, and successful omnichannel initiatives providing additional growth impetus. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia</a> remains a top pick amongst Indonesian retailers, with valuations well below historical levels, despite the resurgence of growth and numerous initiatives in place both online and offline. </li>
</ul>



Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) continues to impress both in terms of SSSG and profitability, with numerous initiatives to drive future growth including more regular promotional campaigns and upgraded formats.
SSSG for 5M2024 is well ahead of full-year guidance with strong growth momentum driven by ongoing campaigns, brighter new concept formats, and successful omnichannel initiatives providing additional growth impetus. 

Ace Hardware Indonesia remains a top pick amongst Indonesian retailers, with valuations well below historical levels, despite the resurgence of growth and numerous initiatives in place both online and offline. 


Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Brighter Ambience Ahead

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt / Equity Bottom-Up

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk operates a chain of retail supermarkets.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart)</a> booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, a testament to its resilience during an election period, with the seasonal impact of Lebaran. </li>
<li>Minimarkets continue to be the winning format in Indonesia and Alfamart continued to gain share during 1Q2024, neck and neck with Salim-backed Indomaret if you include Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan. </li>
<li>Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive and profitability intact with a 25% ROE. </li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, a testament to its resilience during an election period, with the seasonal impact of Lebaran. 
Minimarkets continue to be the winning format in Indonesia and Alfamart continued to gain share during 1Q2024, neck and neck with Salim-backed Indomaret if you include Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan. 
Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive and profitability intact with a 25% ROE. 


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Solidifying Growth Prospects

CrossASEAN Research
Insights across South East Asia

Malaysia: Net Outflow of FDI and FPI Reflect Basic Haemorrhage of Trust

Pressured by Islamist PAS, PM Anwar has abandoned his 25-year advocacy of multi-racialism. Net FDI & FPI outflows will pressure MYR. Fiscal deficit...

Prasenjit K. Basu

CrossASEAN Ground Zero - Shopee Express in the CrossHairs, Grab & OpenAI, Cinema XXI, Thai Tariffs

This week we look at Shopee and Lazada as they are investigated for anti-competitive behaviour around logistics, Grab's OpenAI collaboration, and...

Angus Mackintosh

Xinyi Glass (868): Beneficiary of Chinese RE Rejuvenation

Xinyi Glass, makers of float glass in China, will benefit from home ownership relaxation policies in China. Currently trades at 7x PER with 6% yield.

Henry Soediarko

Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) - Brighter Ambience Ahead

Ace Hardware Indonesia remains a top pick amongst Indonesian retailers with valuations well below historical levels, despite numerous initiatives...

Angus Mackintosh

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Solidifying Growth Prospects

Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive...

Angus Mackintosh