Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> announced an NBIO on the 26th Feb, before entering  into a Scheme on the 12th March. </li>
<li>Alcoa is offering  0.02854 new shares for each Alumina share, a 13% premium to undisturbed. Key shareholders Allan Gray and CITIC are supportive.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240611/pdf/064ghqhjk716lm.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th July. Expected implementation on the 1 August. The IE says fair &amp; reasonable.</li>
</ul>



Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) and Alcoa (AA US) announced an NBIO on the 26th Feb, before entering  into a Scheme on the 12th March. 
Alcoa is offering  0.02854 new shares for each Alumina share, a 13% premium to undisturbed. Key shareholders Allan Gray and CITIC are supportive.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th July. Expected implementation on the 1 August. The IE says fair &amp; reasonable.


Alumina (AWU AU)'s 18th July Scheme Vote. Alcoa's Done Deal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

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Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>’s scheme offer (0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share) fair and reasonable as the terms are within its valuation range. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on FIRB and Alumina/Alcoa shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Alcoa already owns most of Alumina’s sole assets (AWAC).</li>
<li>The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote risk. This is a done deal.</li>
</ul>


The Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) IE considers Alcoa (AA US)’s scheme offer (0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share) fair and reasonable as the terms are within its valuation range. 
The offer is conditional on FIRB and Alumina/Alcoa shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Alcoa already owns most of Alumina’s sole assets (AWAC).
The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote risk. This is a done deal.


<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>'s Tender offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a8-new-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3444:1" rel="noopener">A8 New Media (800 HK)</a>'s Scheme, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jeisys-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36766:1" rel="noopener">Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)</a>'s delisting offer. Bain also approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bapcor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8433:1" rel="noopener">Bapcor (BAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helios-techno-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13934:1" rel="noopener">Helios Techno (6927 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed this week: Fancl (4921 JP)'s Tender offer, A8 New Media (800 HK)'s Scheme, and Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)'s delisting offer. Bain also approached Bapcor (BAP AU).
Key updates took place on: Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Alumina (AWC AU), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Helios Techno (6927 JP), and Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> at 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share. The scheme meeting is targeted for 3Q.</li>
<li>While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump potential. </li>
<li>Regulatory approvals are a formality, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-resources-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4408:1" rel="noopener">Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK)</a> lack of support reflects HKEx listing requirements. At the last close, the gross spread was 3.4%.</li>
</ul>



Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Alcoa (AA US) at 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share. The scheme meeting is targeted for 3Q.
While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump potential. 
Regulatory approvals are a formality, and Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) lack of support reflects HKEx listing requirements. At the last close, the gross spread was 3.4%.


Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating

<ul>
<li>On the 26 February, via an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02776932-3A637267" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBIO</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> offered 0.02854 of its own shares for each <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> share, a 13% premium to last close.</li>
<li>Alcoa/Alumina control 60%/40% of the AWAC JV, an owner and operator of global bauxite mines and alumina refineries. Both companies have now entered into a Scheme on the same terms. </li>
<li>Alcoa holds 19.9% in AWC after reaching an agreement with Allan Gray Australia. The key risks to the deal are FIRB approval and how CITIC, holding 18.9%, will respond.</li>
</ul>


On the 26 February, via an NBIO, Alcoa (AA US) offered 0.02854 of its own shares for each Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) share, a 13% premium to last close.
Alcoa/Alumina control 60%/40% of the AWAC JV, an owner and operator of global bauxite mines and alumina refineries. Both companies have now entered into a Scheme on the same terms. 
Alcoa holds 19.9% in AWC after reaching an agreement with Allan Gray Australia. The key risks to the deal are FIRB approval and how CITIC, holding 18.9%, will respond.


Alumina/Alcoa: Binding Agreement On The Same Terms

Australia

Alumina Limited is an Australian resource company that produces alumina.  The Company owns about 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals through a joint venture with Alcoa.

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Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)

Alumina (AWU AU)'s 18th July Scheme Vote. Alcoa's Done Deal

This is done. Trading almost at terms. As this is a cross-border trade, look to short Alcoa late in the US day, and buy Alumina early in the AU day.

David Blennerhassett

Alumina (AWC AU): Scheme Vote on 18 July

The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating

While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump...

Arun George

Alumina/Alcoa: Binding Agreement On The Same Terms

Reg approvals should be fine. CITIC should be supportive. Current gross/annualised spread of 3.6%/8.0%, assuming late-Aug completion. Look to short...

David Blennerhassett

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